TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Trail Blazersof Timberwolves, Trail Blazers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$363,044
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$368,506

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $363,044 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Trail Blazers45c252,142$113,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139,033.4887144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Timberwolves55c89,877$49,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,432.481625%4 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Timberwolves55c52,708$29,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,106.681,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves55c35,283$19,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,329.98,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Timberwolves55c16,912$9,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,357.1452460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Trail Blazers45c14,541$6,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,986.84,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8013…5b52backed Timberwolves56c12,604$7,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,058.2417554.9%96 W · 79 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Timberwolves55c9,425$5,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1848748.3%42 W · 45 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers51c8,683$4,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,287.344,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Timberwolves50c7,902$3,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,981.8995651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Timberwolves55c7,615$4,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,18826648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Timberwolves54c6,593$3,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,555.0451354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Timberwolves4c6,433$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.8527937.3%104 W · 175 L+57.6wins+0.21per pick17cpaid+187%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xeb75…aaf9backed Timberwolves54c6,312$3,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,408.477759.7%46 W · 31 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Timberwolves55c5,010$2,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,755.51,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Timberwolves55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75012745.7%58 W · 69 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Trail Blazers40c4,784$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,859.061,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa51…a910backed Timberwolves56c4,500$2,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5404645.7%21 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Trail Blazers45c4,444$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,444.421,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked Timberwolves55c4,364$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40015147%71 W · 80 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Timberwolves56c4,035$2,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,259.6148845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d2b…97fdbacked Timberwolves51c3,957$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0006543.1%28 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Trail Blazers45c3,311$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,821.051,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Timberwolves55c2,559$1,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407.462,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Timberwolves12c2,372$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.491,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x471d…8b22backed Timberwolves56c2,247$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.28837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bf6…5200backed Timberwolves55c2,222$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.226055%33 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Trail Blazers46c2,169$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.432,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Trail Blazers49c2,116$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.9943148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Trail Blazers45c2,078$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.7458740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6eb…bc82backed Timberwolves2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302623.1%6 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.17per pick6cpaid+428%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Timberwolves52c2,000$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.9972241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Timberwolves74c1,976$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,471.968936%32 W · 57 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Trail Blazers47c1,702$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.1341954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Trail Blazers45c1,689$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.8865750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves51c1,631$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.483,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers46c1,538$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.726,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Trail Blazers46c1,531$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.771,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Timberwolves54c1,428$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.6946940.3%189 W · 280 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Trail Blazers45c1,392$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.353,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Timberwolves55c1,111$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.0526553.2%141 W · 124 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2590…e38ebacked Timberwolves12c1,100$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+148.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Timberwolves55c1,089$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.9558951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Trail Blazers38c1,007$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.5511942.9%51 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ce9…9c2dbacked Timberwolves56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5607623.7%18 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+51.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a0…d84fbacked Timberwolves1c991.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.85851.7%30 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c8…090cbacked Timberwolves55c905.38$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.0510546.7%49 W · 56 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7e7…fef1backed Timberwolves2c875.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.379046.7%42 W · 48 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04d2…4c2cbacked Timberwolves55c872.73$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48017454%94 W · 80 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Timberwolves55c868$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.41,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Timberwolves55c867$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.8531455.1%173 W · 141 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Timberwolves55c864$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.247354.8%259 W · 214 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d1…aa33backed Timberwolves56c714.29$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006541.5%27 W · 38 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Timberwolves55c703.64$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38716640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd60f…b6c4backed Timberwolves55c691.33$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.424151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd12…5503backed Timberwolves22c600$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134850%4 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+83.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d94…593ebacked Timberwolves22c600$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1342850%14 W · 14 L+9.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+291%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Timberwolves38c600$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2283,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb7f…c092backed Timberwolves10c600$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601346.2%6 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.35per pick11cpaid+378%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Trail Blazers61c585.37$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.073,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Timberwolves53c577.23$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.861,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Timberwolves52c557.88$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.141553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7be1…200ebacked Timberwolves55c547$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.8536449.7%181 W · 183 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Timberwolves55c545.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30064944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Timberwolves55c522$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.192753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb8f…801cbacked Timberwolves55c454.64$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501070%7 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Trail Blazers48c424.56$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.442,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves53c411.15$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.669,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Timberwolves54c391$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.141,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Trail Blazers45c389.15$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.1736045%162 W · 198 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Timberwolves46c331.52$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.7188057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Timberwolves64c327.09$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21095452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2886…9bb2backed Timberwolves55c320$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17610945%49 W · 60 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f85…87d5backed Timberwolves55c314.35$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.315933.9%20 W · 39 L-6.9wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-36%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Timberwolves51c310.58$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.921,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec05…054cbacked Timberwolves55c303.53$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.94825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Timberwolves55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16566645.9%306 W · 360 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Trail Blazers46c299.99$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16391148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Timberwolves54c299.96$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.9825559.2%151 W · 104 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Timberwolves57c298.55$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.063,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Timberwolves55c287$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.921,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40b3…9ef3backed Timberwolves63c282.5$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.444742.6%20 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Trail Blazers47c260$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.845646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ac…5e19backed Timberwolves45c222.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038453.4%205 W · 179 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Timberwolves55c222.16$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1221,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65d8…bac6backed Trail Blazers46c210.48$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.6438350.4%193 W · 190 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Trail Blazers46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10895548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed Timberwolves55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11024856.5%140 W · 108 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c1a…bf0abacked Timberwolves55c199.98$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9912554.4%68 W · 57 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Timberwolves55c198$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.91,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Timberwolves9c188.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1729810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Timberwolves54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9069…9c14backed Timberwolves54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014557.2%83 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Timberwolves55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10029554.6%161 W · 134 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Timberwolves55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10052146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Timberwolves55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc307…bf36backed Timberwolves54c179.57$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.976746.3%31 W · 36 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Timberwolves55c165.69$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9887744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd92a…8936backed Timberwolves10c160$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick6cpaid+218.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf292…1cc7backed Timberwolves55c159.2$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3412644.4%56 W · 70 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.