TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,191,113
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,073,322

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,191,113 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 369 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbad2…5296backed Yes12c123,770$14,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,863.997627.6%21 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes10c61,461$6,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,304.342326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes6c51,629$3,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,005.36714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-74.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x926d…635ebacked No78c36,460$28,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,098.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Yes22c22,122$4,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,806.931526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-60.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes20c21,902$4,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,433.515341.5%22 W · 31 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes17c19,482$3,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,270.442548%12 W · 13 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick30cpaid+61.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa39e…1d88backed Yes26c17,407$4,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,512.471428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-52.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes25c16,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.9740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes32c15,196$4,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,847.2160%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x78ae…143abacked Yes12c12,768$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.512927.6%8 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cac…6f43backed Yes4c12,146$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.2950%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes21c11,324$2,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,328.11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+60.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c11,129$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.13180%0 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed Yes19c10,936$2,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,073.37728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-54.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7525…cde1backed Yes7c10,800$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes14c10,716$1,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,536.593625%9 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes16c10,631$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb4a…9b9ebacked No64c9,995$6,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,566.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes18c9,000$1,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.54742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes29c9,000$2,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,609.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes8c8,026$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.272437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes16c7,966$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.5540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c7,252$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,664.645318.9%10 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c52…ff83backed Yes26c6,241$1,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,617.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa872…a6dfbacked Yes7c6,228$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+54.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No76c5,850$4,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed Yes26c5,705$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,502.58425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c5,673$4,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,313.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed Yes30c5,555$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes20c5,555$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Yes30c5,555$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed Yes20c5,397$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.92650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf955…5e06backed No78c5,386$4,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd676…317ebacked Yes2c5,314$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ae1…52b9backed No79c5,084$4,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x294a…bbbabacked No77c5,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1501118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-63.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Yes36c5,000$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,79030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Yes17c5,000$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed No72c4,949$3,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c4,818$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.77630%0 W · 63 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes11c4,693$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.397133.8%24 W · 47 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes19c4,583$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.833616.7%6 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x147c…8a8ebacked No73c4,480$3,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-54%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes8c4,188$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.26520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-69.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7cc…644ebacked Yes19c4,093$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa659…1eaabacked Yes3c4,043$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes3c4,001$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No76c3,941$2,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes27c3,777$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.64520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc23…dbe6backed No73c3,650$2,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9864100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked No75c3,540$2,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.97540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Yes17c3,500$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes21c3,342$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.48714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-79.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b02…4991backed Yes28c3,290$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5f…95e2backed No74c3,074$2,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.94425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-66.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes11c3,034$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.6960%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf603…82f1backed Yes25c3,000$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf95f…f988backed Yes27c2,971$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.65540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c2,907$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.11333%1 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-89.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa27…c21abacked Yes4c2,818$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Yes31c2,800$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-72.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d0…5a98backed Yes36c2,791$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.02450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6368…d45ebacked No72c2,788$2,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.191154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5f…5ef0backed Yes1c2,677$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd75a…fdecbacked Yes17c2,606$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes33c2,551$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.1520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-55.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes16c2,500$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45f2…8e5ebacked Yes17c2,360$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Yes35c2,272$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed Yes26c2,216$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.1940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf59d…bb41backed Yes17c2,185$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes38c2,095$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.26425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-62.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecc4…7a2abacked Yes17c2,049$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.41513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-79.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5b…efbebacked Yes19c2,035$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.142119%4 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-67.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbab…9a8abacked Yes16c2,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2814…68dbbacked Yes31c1,991$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53e…f9f6backed No75c1,946$1,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.941936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32d0…6070backed No74c1,805$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.851650%8 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-29.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x719f…db30backed No79c1,800$1,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3781100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Yes16c1,800$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes17c1,778$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.918236.6%30 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd15…4a07backed Yes34c1,765$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes26c1,742$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x534b…983fbacked Yes18c1,700$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3e…abeabacked No78c1,683$1,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.37333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-57.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1970…398dbacked Yes18c1,672$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.141330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes8c1,632$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+77.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaae…fa80backed Yes2c1,611$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes15c1,600$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed Yes3c1,513$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe80f…3354backed No75c1,500$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3753100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes4c1,428$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.294515.6%7 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ec…875cbacked Yes16c1,375$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7d5…b244backed Yes4c1,310$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed Yes27c1,265$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x724d…8deabacked Yes20c1,257$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.5280%0 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed No71c1,250$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.53132.3%10 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa58b…ef84backed Yes4c1,200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9781…bc2abacked No64c1,200$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4321100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.