TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Switzerland win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$160,179
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,405

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,179 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3ed4…4dfebacked Yes0c12,418$12 inLost-$12.4230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9fc…7f73backed Yes0c12,418$12 inLost-$12.4230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c12,221$12 inLost-$12.22180%0 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb242…4280backed Yes0c10,032$43 inLost-$43160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2135…ec29backed Yes0c8,566$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c7,983$24 inLost-$24.49420%0 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a73…c046backed Yes0c7,380$11 inLost-$10.79120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x287f…d819backed Yes0c6,828$33 inLost-$3340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Yes0c3,376$11 inLost-$11.321020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-68.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66f9…adb9backed Yes1c3,273$40 inLost-$40130%0 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x031a…bec7backed Yes0c3,104$11 inLost-$1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa72c…cbddbacked Yes1c2,837$18 inLost-$1830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes1c2,053$17 inLost-$16.9430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d7…1cd7backed Yes1c1,813$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes2c1,206$21 inLost-$21.261822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-52.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.