TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iraq by February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,414,611

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,414,611 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 801 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6480…8dc5backed No0c2,409,328$2,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,409.33350%0 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33a…cc98backed No0c300,028$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.92666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7681…b753backed No0c300,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300650%3 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+845.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd1a4…8178backed No27c214,864$57,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,847.83475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37ab…931fbacked No0c207,727$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.05540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa68f…5f55backed No0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed No0c167,326$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.3311334.5%39 W · 74 L-7.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7be…f3ecbacked No0c154,400$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4566…5319backed No0c150,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf62f…dea4backed No0c139,920$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22ed…d9d0backed No0c133,400$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-53.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes54c116,423$62,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,858.8135631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80bd…7acdbacked No0c108,900$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4320…a05ebacked No0c103,590$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.59140%0 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003616.7%6 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+39.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8b8…34f1backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe85c…c608backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca5…6aecbacked No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6470…1743backed No0c99,990$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b7…a009backed No0c99,970$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3f1…5b30backed No0c99,700$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-81.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaec2…7cc7backed No6c98,825$6,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,125.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed No0c81,440$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4924712.1%30 W · 217 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc96…33fbbacked No0c78,000$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x315f…85c6backed No0c72,725$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.874010%4 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-75.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc8…fad4backed No0c71,000$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe966…2930backed No0c70,484$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.48185.6%1 W · 17 L-3.7wins-0.21per pick26cpaid-90.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ab9…361dbacked No0c70,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70287.1%2 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-88.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa120…ee64backed No0c64,045$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed No72c63,988$46,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,0575623.2%13 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1081…3db0backed No16c61,349$9,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,988.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c4b…f6dbbacked No77c58,074$44,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,928.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked Yes12c56,814$7,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,734.4514227.5%39 W · 103 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65b9…dc25backed No0c54,390$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.785910.2%6 W · 53 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x359d…d7ebbacked No0c54,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10890%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b8f…9200backed No0c52,680$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f4b…4a0ebacked No0c52,000$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d92…47cebacked No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1861…fa95backed No0c49,900$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes45c49,857$22,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,616.335431.5%17 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5d1…873ebacked No0c46,735$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.47425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+109.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e5b…073bbacked Yes30c45,190$13,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,658.863935.9%14 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdcc…db04backed No0c45,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9778…a348backed No0c45,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80c5…333dbacked Yes25c40,385$10,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,212.12955.2%16 W · 13 L+5.7wins+0.20per pick35cpaid+113.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1cd0…b136backed No0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed No0c37,965$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.281596.9%11 W · 148 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf23…aa95backed Yes20c37,300$7,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,890.9412054.2%65 W · 55 L+10.7wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3cea…1996backed No0c37,296$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.961421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0e…06f9backed No0c36,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36205%1 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f15…19a0backed No0c35,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d17…c3dabacked No0c33,430$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.43258%2 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-51.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked No0c32,259$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.263743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.7wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes14c32,033$4,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,691.244748.9%23 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+46.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8917…6e96backed No0c32,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes5c30,990$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,452.7816537%61 W · 104 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d8d…a0d6backed No0c30,500$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9aca…8dfcbacked No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked No0c30,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4017111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4024…4f45backed No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7731…ab5ebacked No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa087…3dbdbacked No0c29,404$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.490%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e59…354abacked No0c29,370$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0612…bf7bbacked Yes24c28,927$6,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,991.481030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes47c26,460$12,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,036.6319531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d9a…dbe1backed No0c25,660$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.66333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-35.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x03a9…2e32backed No0c25,615$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes23c25,007$5,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,209.578641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x69c4…214abacked No0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5bb…c7e4backed No0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed No0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25437%3 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-48%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes46c24,930$11,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,457.555735.1%20 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f99…2d89backed No0c24,750$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick11cpaid+9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x382a…b590backed No0c24,579$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.585010%5 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-73.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x98d2…f5ffbacked No0c24,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccd3…af17backed No0c23,821$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbad…c86ebacked No0c23,500$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8362.8%1 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick9cpaid-96.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d76…b43ebacked No0c23,370$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc82e…2c16backed No0c23,270$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa299…0f2fbacked No0c22,654$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.15812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-67.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8208…01b5backed No0c22,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e2e…4f7bbacked No0c22,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd6…7f39backed No0c21,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cce…9677backed No0c20,830$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d44…11d5backed No0c20,500$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d84…2c67backed No0c20,030$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.03293.4%1 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x320f…176cbacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ea…b02abacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010513.3%14 W · 91 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x656a…7195backed No0c20,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c64…36b4backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-69.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e59…faaebacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…44f1backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-42.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe86c…739bbacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6202…b37abacked No0c19,980$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab95…4183backed No0c19,960$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd732…ebb4backed No0c19,942$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8870%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc7f…f922backed No0c19,892$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.892317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-59.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes8c19,086$1,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,551.326018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f2b…8775backed No0c18,663$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.631127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-61.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes18c18,488$3,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,212.5936750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.