Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd603617895e199d4042781ee55a7a9614af3130ca8e90d257424ca246f66197
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,603,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,487,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,603,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,783 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Yes | 0c | 3,237,769$3,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,237.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 3,046,482$4,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,457.97 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed Yes | 1c | 2,733,058$15,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,450.55 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed Yes | 0c | 999,998$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,799.99 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…1cf9backed Yes | 0c | 941,655$2,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,919 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c29…7570backed Yes | 0c | 934,162$2,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,193.32 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed Yes | 7c | 774,169$51,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,955.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed Yes | 0c | 747,051$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.82 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa87…c2a0backed Yes | 6c | 627,678$37,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,488.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1138…e410backed Yes | 18c | 540,328$96,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96,621.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…24e0backed Yes | 2c | 269,454$4,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,107.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +63%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…618cbacked Yes | 0c | 242,027$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x611c…c982backed Yes | 6c | 224,857$13,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,973.56 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…44fabacked Yes | 0c | 200,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb521…18f6backed Yes | 1c | 199,529$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.43 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f8…abc9backed Yes | 6c | 193,665$11,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,418.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 174,143$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.54 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 0c | 169,633$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.24 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 11c | 161,534$16,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,965.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab6…6eecbacked Yes | 0c | 137,834$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…2a53backed Yes | 12c | 135,065$16,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,038.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 0c | 133,910$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.38 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 13c | 130,706$17,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,246.11 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c7…e125backed Yes | 3c | 128,972$4,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,465.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed Yes | 36c | 128,312$46,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,015.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…d382backed Yes | 3c | 122,862$3,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,952.21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 1c | 119,848$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.24 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…c4c1backed Yes | 9c | 119,133$10,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,764.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Yes | 0c | 113,875$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.62 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -96.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa1…3c07backed Yes | 0c | 113,531$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 16cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed Yes | 0c | 108,935$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66c…f291backed Yes | 0c | 106,792$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 0c | 104,580$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.82 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 23c | 98,789$22,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,361.08 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4db6…9842backed Yes | 0c | 85,010$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…7f1cbacked Yes | 20c | 84,128$16,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,901.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 19c | 82,832$15,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,799.08 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…259fbacked Yes | 3c | 81,279$2,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,132.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…74a3backed Yes | 0c | 79,907$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x053f…2c01backed Yes | 7c | 79,432$5,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,254.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 6c | 77,596$4,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,844.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 10cpaid | +220.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…3c63backed Yes | 0c | 76,871$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 33c | 74,836$24,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,645.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…5806backed Yes | 13c | 67,302$8,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,594.9 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…ae3cbacked Yes | 0c | 64,589$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b8…479cbacked Yes | 17c | 63,262$10,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,530.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…6ca1backed Yes | 0c | 62,625$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0750…9db6backed Yes | 0c | 62,082$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b49…d0dfbacked Yes | 7c | 59,959$4,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,477.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed Yes | 2c | 59,806$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.02 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 2c | 59,052$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.11 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 72c | 58,929$42,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,221.22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 5c | 57,357$2,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,711.9 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 0c | 51,961$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.89 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 5c | 51,766$2,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,421.29 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 8c | 51,609$4,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,348.58 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 33c | 50,958$16,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,635.55 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 50,315$11,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,471.13 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59b5…af57backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c2…14e0backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29e…a982backed Yes | 60c | 50,000$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,999.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 3c | 50,000$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.36 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5831…72bdbacked Yes | 0c | 49,184$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 24c | 48,380$11,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,785.44 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 5c | 47,766$2,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,360.84 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…e623backed Yes | 0c | 47,597$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.84 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa6…36a2backed Yes | 30c | 45,651$13,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,700 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d3…59aabacked Yes | 5c | 45,609$2,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,263.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de2…e6c9backed No | 50c | 44,655$22,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,524.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +107.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8e…e8b0backed Yes | 43c | 44,461$19,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,145.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e20…d6ddbacked Yes | 27c | 43,572$11,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,665.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed No | 76c | 42,788$32,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,251.06 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…f3b6backed Yes | 49c | 42,537$20,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,708.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 0c | 42,000$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 42,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 41,717$2,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,092.36 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc78c…0c5abacked Yes | 21c | 41,327$8,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,639.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0222…7f38backed Yes | 5c | 39,500$2,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9f…ccc5backed Yes | 0c | 39,038$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c2…a53dbacked Yes | 1c | 37,983$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…1d99backed Yes | 7c | 37,627$2,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,457.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc019…eb47backed No | 71c | 35,905$25,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,561.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3847…5c87backed Yes | 1c | 35,165$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.89 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Yes | 0c | 35,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 1c | 34,530$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…200bbacked Yes | 31c | 34,387$10,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,789.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x282d…25d8backed Yes | 3c | 34,382$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ee…5fdebacked Yes | 9c | 33,718$3,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,193.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…3f02backed Yes | 53c | 33,316$17,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,555.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…403cbacked Yes | 0c | 33,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 13c | 32,602$4,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,207.25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 6c | 32,449$2,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,096.96 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -41%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…309bbacked Yes | 2c | 32,143$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.36 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 63c | 32,118$20,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,868.35 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 10c | 32,000$3,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,042.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7a…67b0backed Yes | 49c | 31,734$15,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,567.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…5d23backed Yes | 6c | 31,556$1,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,858.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d5…046cbacked Yes | 2c | 31,156$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa252…dbf4backed Yes | 41c | 31,057$12,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,805.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?this page
- Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.