TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,907,361
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$116,944

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,907,361 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xacb1…9998backed Yes0c634,603$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec9f…21bdbacked Yes0c634,603$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d21…3e74backed Yes0c634,603$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fbe…1b01backed Yes0c634,291$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.2930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a0e…0f19backed Yes0c633,787$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.7930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5e…e9f4backed Yes0c633,241$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.2430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x713d…9adebacked Yes0c633,241$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.2430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…88b9backed Yes0c633,241$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.2430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c46…7eabbacked Yes0c594,793$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.7930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd49d…c12bbacked Yes0c594,643$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.6430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x108a…c378backed Yes0c594,643$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.6430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc972…708ebacked Yes0c593,665$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.6730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e06…47cebacked Yes0c587,819$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.8240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bda…a277backed Yes0c586,706$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.7140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6446…a2a3backed Yes0c586,706$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.7140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd217…e1dabacked Yes0c586,706$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.7140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c69…2dd7backed Yes0c585,506$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.5140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a41…4cb9backed Yes0c579,836$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.8440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e26…a3cabacked Yes0c579,836$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.8440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e7b…1f8ebacked Yes0c579,836$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.8440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab5…e123backed Yes0c543,109$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.1130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa62e…2e72backed Yes0c543,109$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.1130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x744e…4c43backed Yes0c543,109$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.1130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f38…ff4fbacked Yes0c543,109$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.1130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c4…68c5backed Yes0c528,565$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04f7…184abacked Yes0c528,565$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e21…23dbbacked Yes0c528,565$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7832…78cabacked Yes0c528,565$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28b0…c002backed Yes0c528,565$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c91…f3f2backed Yes0c527,558$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…fa2ebacked Yes0c482,220$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.7720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf8b…276abacked Yes0c383,167$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb77…0979backed Yes0c352,042$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Yes0c143,379$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.38160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes0c139,381$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe206…38cebacked Yes0c129,307$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.3140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7660…0fc9backed Yes0c108,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58de…608abacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x255c…6e58backed Yes0c98,984$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c44…387cbacked Yes0c70,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa095…aca5backed Yes0c55,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0334…73edbacked Yes0c54,344$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98db…c677backed Yes0c47,620$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7990…ea79backed Yes0c44,814$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3a…feb6backed Yes0c42,355$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58fe…d40dbacked Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd22…e478backed Yes0c38,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe67…3932backed Yes0c33,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32c…a30bbacked Yes0c30,358$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae4…d0d0backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30240%0 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d58…845fbacked Yes0c25,906$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e4e…50a4backed Yes0c21,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea00…42e8backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20240%0 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb975…2876backed Yes0c19,985$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16a…1e3cbacked Yes0c16,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c9…4c2ebacked Yes0c15,968$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe604…0bd6backed Yes0c15,005$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0500…17cdbacked Yes0c13,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a84…364ebacked Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6418…f8a6backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x386e…e19abacked Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e0a…aa33backed Yes0c11,975$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc96…735abacked Yes0c11,973$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x654a…0026backed Yes0c11,830$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c12…02b0backed Yes0c11,038$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1935…900cbacked Yes0c10,948$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x737a…2bbcbacked Yes0c10,559$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e8…3e9dbacked Yes0c10,379$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8cc…686dbacked Yes0c10,120$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a7a…4effbacked Yes0c10,087$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66fb…0cc9backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec79…f1a8backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd13e…ca33backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c91…e623backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10240%0 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec74…312bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x173d…8d76backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d74…3c51backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ec8…0c13backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bc6…6c9fbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f82…d715backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4346…5db6backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa47…51fdbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x894e…3350backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2669…fa0dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec7…0a46backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdad8…8fd0backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb431…1a25backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c5,741$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.463187.2%23 W · 295 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e80…d141backed Yes0c3,247$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5376…b8f0backed Yes1c2,956$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94fc…e11fbacked Yes1c2,472$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bb9…351fbacked Yes2c1,814$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaed…35fbbacked Yes1c1,509$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.