TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,577,646
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,559

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,577,646 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 340 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec9f…21bdbacked Yes0c438,447$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.4530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5e…e9f4backed Yes0c438,200$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x713d…9adebacked Yes0c438,200$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fbe…1b01backed Yes0c438,195$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.1930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…88b9backed Yes0c438,195$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.1930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a0e…0f19backed Yes0c437,544$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.5430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d21…3e74backed Yes0c437,452$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.4530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb1…9998backed Yes0c437,447$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.4530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6446…a2a3backed Yes0c360,404$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c69…2dd7backed Yes0c360,404$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e06…47cebacked Yes0c344,288$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.2940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bda…a277backed Yes0c307,199$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd217…e1dabacked Yes0c305,782$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.7840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e7b…1f8ebacked Yes0c256,646$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.6540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a41…4cb9backed Yes0c256,646$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.6540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e26…a3cabacked Yes0c256,646$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.6540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c4…68c5backed Yes0c251,835$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.8430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04f7…184abacked Yes0c251,835$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.8430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e21…23dbbacked Yes0c251,835$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.8430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7832…78cabacked Yes0c251,835$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.8430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28b0…c002backed Yes0c251,835$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.8430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c91…f3f2backed Yes0c251,835$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.8430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81a8…64a2backed Yes0c130,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd19e…535cbacked Yes0c116,532$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…cd92backed Yes0c111,629$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8df7…cca3backed Yes0c111,600$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes0c109,721$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.7260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6f3…f96dbacked Yes0c101,000$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c3…10c2backed Yes0c100,810$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc36f…a0bfbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ff…2264backed Yes0c97,464$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4386…0b74backed Yes0c97,140$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc028…c951backed Yes0c97,040$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d5…a96cbacked Yes0c95,166$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb69f…ba0abacked Yes0c92,869$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dc9…4627backed Yes0c91,619$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd42…1b1dbacked Yes0c91,041$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842c…054ebacked Yes0c89,160$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf757…4d12backed Yes0c87,201$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x115d…f608backed Yes0c86,950$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9590%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdea3…90c0backed Yes0c86,132$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc248…3ca9backed Yes0c85,622$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc29…0804backed Yes0c83,873$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a28…4515backed Yes0c82,411$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a2…6fb7backed Yes0c82,351$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b5b…797dbacked Yes0c81,244$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba42…6f1fbacked Yes0c81,048$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd72…c3bdbacked Yes0c80,432$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb350…3f14backed Yes0c79,834$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eec…ad98backed Yes0c79,706$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf733…ca06backed Yes0c79,247$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc763…5cc2backed Yes0c77,885$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5001…d006backed Yes0c77,247$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec05…44f2backed Yes0c76,130$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0da…1dd3backed Yes0c75,123$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aed…46fabacked Yes0c74,016$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62a6…7d02backed Yes0c72,705$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ba9…36b6backed Yes0c72,627$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7616…5d86backed Yes0c71,086$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0e6…39d7backed Yes0c69,478$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1c3…9876backed Yes0c67,692$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6b…5defbacked Yes0c67,559$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f6f…05b4backed Yes0c66,997$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f58…e10bbacked Yes0c65,247$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65b2…3bedbacked Yes0c64,681$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98f8…b262backed Yes0c64,459$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e7…15b1backed Yes0c63,509$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f0f…c8c4backed Yes0c62,077$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25ef…068cbacked Yes0c62,050$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86f2…073fbacked Yes0c61,869$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae1e…29ccbacked Yes0c61,563$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd62…6ffcbacked Yes0c61,478$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a9…55dcbacked Yes0c61,448$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9521…b694backed Yes0c61,321$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4de5…290bbacked Yes0c61,262$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cd5…5a11backed Yes0c60,953$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6876…7bdcbacked Yes0c60,857$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x461a…45d5backed Yes0c60,480$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9bf…e81bbacked Yes0c60,407$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0f3…89e0backed Yes0c60,368$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b3…378fbacked Yes0c60,138$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c28…7ba7backed Yes0c60,084$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd801…d9d8backed Yes0c59,955$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11bf…2740backed Yes0c59,929$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa641…2e32backed Yes0c59,822$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d2…f3a2backed Yes0c59,574$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf38…1e87backed Yes0c59,571$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd62a…e055backed Yes0c59,538$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf39c…19d7backed Yes0c59,459$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb850…965ebacked Yes0c59,398$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x166c…3934backed Yes0c59,356$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5270…6144backed Yes0c59,325$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9830…3c6ebacked Yes0c59,286$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa84e…a47bbacked Yes0c59,220$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aed…c315backed Yes0c59,193$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b5…b7a4backed Yes0c59,114$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef5a…c956backed Yes0c59,102$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd883…941ebacked Yes0c59,096$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x461b…5264backed Yes0c59,028$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2989…2200backed Yes0c58,979$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.