Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61b66d02793b4a68ab0cc25be60d65f517fe18c7d654041281bb130341244fcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,907,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,085,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,907,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 4,670 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a54…b8bebacked No | 1c | 1,910,515$14,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,085.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be8…08e4backed No | 1c | 1,212,745$9,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,530.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 0c | 800,000$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.25 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…395cbacked No | 1c | 735,178$8,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,625.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked No | 0c | 564,963$2,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,781.86 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed Yes | 52c | 548,865$284,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264,217.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27eb…94ddbacked No | 2c | 524,476$11,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,698.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa229…cbf1backed No | 6c | 500,857$32,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,148 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…bf33backed Yes | 43c | 408,513$174,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234,012.53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…209bbacked Yes | 58c | 407,456$237,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170,031.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cc…336cbacked No | 4c | 361,226$13,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,903.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29e…a982backed Yes | 60c | 300,001$179,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120,001.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59f…d8a2backed No | 0c | 282,840$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…cd8ebacked Yes | 26c | 273,281$72,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201,017.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…618cbacked No | 1c | 216,749$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…1cf9backed No | 5c | 208,494$9,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,918 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…c70ebacked No | 4c | 208,124$9,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,303.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f6…2ad7backed No | 2c | 203,890$3,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,672.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed No | 5c | 197,999$10,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,868.78 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 40c | 182,733$73,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109,712.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed No | 2c | 158,702$2,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,643.71 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x324b…ca61backed No | 5c | 150,232$7,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,609.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47b5…a045backed No | 6c | 143,039$8,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,084.62 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 0c | 138,591$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66c…f291backed No | 40c | 129,367$52,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,252.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x376b…d81bbacked No | 9c | 126,000$11,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,389.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 7c | 119,399$7,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,959.18 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…a56fbacked Yes | 73c | 116,560$85,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,334.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed Yes | 38c | 107,465$40,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,121.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3044…9ff8backed Yes | 52c | 106,425$55,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,217.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b03…787dbacked No | 3c | 105,988$3,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,238.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4f…0f33backed No | 7c | 105,251$7,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,524.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 72c | 105,203$75,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,540.66 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcf…b89cbacked No | 2c | 104,756$2,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,266.94 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 68c | 102,202$69,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,336.74 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…d382backed No | 6c | 101,666$6,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,290.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…24e0backed No | 6c | 101,326$5,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,876.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +63%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…8556backed No | 0c | 100,200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…f3b6backed Yes | 44c | 93,877$41,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,295.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 78c | 89,368$69,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,959.03 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8b…97efbacked No | 2c | 86,044$1,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,868 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…2df0backed Yes | 48c | 85,846$40,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,016.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7759…6020backed Yes | 28c | 83,652$23,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,895.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed Yes | 35c | 82,962$29,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,856.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Yes | 42c | 82,703$34,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,802.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb005…e690backed No | 5c | 80,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…2020backed No | 2c | 79,038$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa6…36a2backed Yes | 44c | 78,295$34,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,740.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 77,599$3,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,867.44 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…1d99backed Yes | 47c | 77,394$36,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,252.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 38c | 77,154$29,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,662.95 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +214.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 68c | 74,647$50,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,249.22 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…200bbacked Yes | 71c | 72,186$51,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,788.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9a…db3fbacked Yes | 46c | 68,164$31,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,783.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 80c | 68,132$54,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,847.73 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -41%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed No | 4c | 68,086$2,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,822.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed Yes | 39c | 65,358$25,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,033.81 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 76c | 64,543$49,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,390.16 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…1223backed No | 26c | 64,480$16,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,721.08 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 36c | 63,812$22,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,995.08 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…e21dbacked No | 1c | 61,664$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.78 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0913…4cd0backed No | 1c | 59,906$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…65cfbacked Yes | 66c | 59,060$39,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,977.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked No | 7c | 58,344$3,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,855.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc680…e94cbacked No | 3c | 57,170$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,756.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…dee2backed No | 6c | 57,000$3,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,390.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f29…25f5backed No | 0c | 56,866$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…5806backed Yes | 50c | 56,310$28,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,969.01 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…bfcebacked No | 40c | 56,000$22,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8e…e8b0backed Yes | 33c | 55,449$18,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,377.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed Yes | 54c | 55,438$30,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,352.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951e…cd9cbacked Yes | 74c | 55,149$40,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,362.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…af80backed No | 0c | 53,713$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.34 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…1a6abacked No | 2c | 52,899$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…1464backed No | 0c | 50,015$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 45c | 48,833$22,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,647.57 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a2…1b62backed No | 2c | 48,667$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825c…f9a9backed No | 16c | 47,996$7,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,708.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x538d…b192backed No | 6c | 47,617$2,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,628.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7be…77f4backed No | 5c | 46,522$2,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,374.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes | 67c | 46,000$30,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,278.04 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…7099backed Yes | 72c | 45,455$32,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,539.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6b…1c7dbacked No | 6c | 45,289$2,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,627.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed No | 2c | 44,559$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.26 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 75c | 44,381$33,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,220.18 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 6c | 44,170$2,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,610.24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4aa…c5f8backed Yes | 45c | 43,405$19,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,704.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 62c | 42,434$26,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,465.43 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…9455backed No | 2c | 42,339$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700d…3944backed No | 62c | 41,861$26,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,088.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked No | 23c | 41,848$9,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,695.96 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78c…0c5abacked Yes | 32c | 41,192$13,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,904.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe574…2fcebacked No | 5c | 40,816$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…8bf8backed No | 7c | 39,996$2,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,624.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 45c | 39,927$17,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,854.31 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 0c | 38,530$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.12 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ea…66f5backed No | 1c | 38,481$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…7eddbacked No | 2c | 38,240$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 54c | 37,916$20,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,427.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed Yes | 80c | 36,053$28,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,278.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?this page
- Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.