TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfb97…9feb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
64
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 53 out of 100; worst Europa Conference League at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Dennis Buzukja vs. Bogdan Grad (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Dennis Buzukja · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Joaquin Buckley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.51
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Jack Della Maddalena · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Tai Tuivasa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$63
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Colby Thicknesse · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$90
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.39
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Ryan Spann · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$189.5
UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Cody Durden (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Cody Durden · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$52.57
UFC Fight Night: Daria Zhelezniakova vs. Melissa Croden (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Daria Zhelezniakova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.2
UFC Fight Night: JJ Aldrich vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)backed Jamey-Lyn Horth · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.14
UFC 327: Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Early Prelims)backed Francisco Prado · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.6
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Chris Duncan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.11
UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Robert Ruchala · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.58
UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Guilherme Pat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.8
O/U 2.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+70.5%+$13.75
UFC Fight Night: Hailey Cowan vs. Alice Pereira (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Alice Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$41.16
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Joe Pyfer · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$82.86
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Terrance McKinney · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$28.13
Will Nassourdine Imavov fight Sean Strickland next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.68
Will Khamzat Chimaev fight Sean Strickland next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the announcers say "Triangle" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+143.8%+$143.83
All 22 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+66.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$172
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+127.6%+$76.54
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$63.64
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$225.94
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.4
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will Iran strike Jordan in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.49
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$552Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$552.02
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+1,011.1%+$1,001
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$50.12
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+566.7%+$1,289.56
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$258Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+336.4%+$867.52
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$46.65
Will the US next strike Iran on January 17, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$14
All 16 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$128.57
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.95
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$99
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.8
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.3
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+100%+$200
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$195.86
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$261Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$282.86
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 12 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+67.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$13.26
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$50.45
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$110
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$80
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$19.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.