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UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Cody Durden (Flyweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cody Durdenof Jafel Filho, Cody Durden
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$376,123
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$486,271

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $376,123 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3e2f…aaf8backed Cody Durden17c46,638$8,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,590.79837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d6e…5cfdbacked Cody Durden16c33,456$5,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,102.62650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdd…017fbacked Jafel Filho10c24,064$2,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,521.863943.6%17 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Jafel Filho53c17,994$9,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,510.8315939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Cody Durden16c16,122$2,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,542.6516244.4%72 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Cody Durden72c14,073$10,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,912.7720954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54d2…ac37backed Cody Durden18c10,455$1,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,574.121346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+46.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bb0…ca79backed Jafel Filho28c4,409$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.311540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb6…3965backed Jafel Filho1c2,822$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.221850%9 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Jafel Filho58c2,558$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.9915933.3%53 W · 106 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x19d0…e11cbacked Cody Durden18c2,377$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.14955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+88.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Jafel Filho66c2,290$1,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.0710546.7%49 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Jafel Filho77c2,200$1,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,695.5930964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x76cc…fbbcbacked Cody Durden34c2,066$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,357.693650%18 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Cody Durden40c2,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20013453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52f4…2b15backed Cody Durden43c1,869$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.1416156.5%91 W · 70 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+67.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Cody Durden73c1,785$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.2153956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed Cody Durden40c1,743$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.174746.8%22 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x013d…0574backed Jafel Filho1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Jafel Filho1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15220%0 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceb1…bd4fbacked Jafel Filho1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f7b…440fbacked Jafel Filho1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Jafel Filho60c1,430$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.8513735.8%49 W · 88 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Jafel Filho14c1,428$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.92368.3%3 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Cody Durden34c1,396$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.651764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+27.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Jafel Filho51c1,327$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.6116746.1%77 W · 90 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Jafel Filho60c1,312$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.3520233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Jafel Filho65c1,242$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.5631855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Jafel Filho1c1,200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%0 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Cody Durden17c1,057$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8779247.8%44 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c4…0734backed Jafel Filho76c1,034$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.862937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Jafel Filho19c951.4$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.7716745.5%76 W · 91 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3f3…3426backed Cody Durden28c923.75$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.4714132.6%46 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x34fb…a074backed Cody Durden17c793.14$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.3450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+125.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Cody Durden13c792.49$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.4611761.5%72 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71b4…f97ebacked Cody Durden64c768.28$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.195851.7%30 W · 28 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+192.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f2e…9d0bbacked Jafel Filho64c761.46$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.81266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Jafel Filho54c735.08$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.138353.3%204 W · 179 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Jafel Filho61c714.39$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.9535848.3%173 W · 185 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked Cody Durden36c712.66$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.296048.3%29 W · 31 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Jafel Filho47c697.41$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.862934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe802…e465backed Cody Durden18c687.21$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.613246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5896backed Cody Durden18c660.28$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.4314237.3%53 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Jafel Filho58c656.39$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.9415540.6%63 W · 92 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Cody Durden47c637.22$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.8328043.2%121 W · 159 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf23…dcb7backed Cody Durden17c616.23$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.471560%9 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+50.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Cody Durden47c613.87$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.0512557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Cody Durden18c591.61$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.1226140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Cody Durden47c588.09$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.464656.5%26 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3d2…fe85backed Cody Durden57c572.6$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.22850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda00…5c4dbacked Cody Durden18c559.92$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.133756.8%21 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Jafel Filho58c553.95$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.7320139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Jafel Filho44c543.54$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.652227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-56.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Jafel Filho65c541.84$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.233647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Jafel Filho50c490.34$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.992343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdded…13a2backed Cody Durden27c488.7$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.471866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed Cody Durden55c486.47$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.339949.5%49 W · 50 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ae1…bbedbacked Jafel Filho55c469.82$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.262040%8 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Cody Durden15c466.65$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.6624847.2%117 W · 131 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Cody Durden53c463$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.6112449.2%61 W · 63 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Jafel Filho50c418.91$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.4837754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99b1…196abacked Cody Durden43c407.24$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.438861.4%54 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b39…7fbcbacked Cody Durden18c401.45$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.19933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd738…eeeebacked Cody Durden22c395.51$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.4313248.5%64 W · 68 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed Jafel Filho64c387.01$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.971442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Jafel Filho69c372$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.6818032.8%59 W · 121 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3d…351dbacked Cody Durden48c365.87$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.1312055.8%67 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba5a…344cbacked Jafel Filho70c351.74$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.474060%24 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x692e…ee58backed Cody Durden58c336.65$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.73342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Jafel Filho46c324$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.512343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Jafel Filho77c311$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.026254.8%34 W · 28 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Cody Durden31c309.85$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.7313951.1%71 W · 68 L+10.2wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Cody Durden19c285.78$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.483441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe160…b6b9backed Cody Durden50c282.52$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.3914442.4%61 W · 83 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac93…4259backed Jafel Filho70c280.57$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Cody Durden17c276.56$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.484957.1%28 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8cee…0d1ebacked Jafel Filho75c261.73$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.113650%18 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked Cody Durden19c250.37$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.89637.5%36 W · 60 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Jafel Filho40c248.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.544327.9%12 W · 31 L-5.2wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-47.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x29fb…09f1backed Cody Durden19c247.11$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+414.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea8e…ee37backed Cody Durden55c229.07$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.083060%18 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x360b…982fbacked Jafel Filho80c222.41$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.938851.1%45 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2461…f240backed Jafel Filho77c206.33$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcd6…84cdbacked Jafel Filho61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1221346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Cody Durden17c199.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.9918644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71f6…e115backed Cody Durden34c197.73$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.57437.8%28 W · 46 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Jafel Filho69c179.21$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.664645.7%21 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Jafel Filho69c179.21$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.664158.5%24 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Cody Durden29c163.14$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.2913646.3%63 W · 73 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f94…f992backed Cody Durden18c158.47$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.944445.5%20 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+31.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2311…99ecbacked Cody Durden28c157.19$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.692958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Jafel Filho69c151.65$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.643253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+32%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbccb…5269backed Cody Durden17c139.51$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.79425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac6b…a962backed Cody Durden28c136.4$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988259.8%49 W · 33 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Cody Durden28c134.94$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.5727448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cbc…1d39backed Cody Durden21c117.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.217841.6%74 W · 104 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Jafel Filho9c116.58$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.15418.5%10 W · 44 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e3…1080backed Jafel Filho68c114.9$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.135736.8%21 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-32.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2e91…4e8bbacked Jafel Filho78c110.67$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.857631.6%24 W · 52 L-7.8wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-31.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Cody Durden16c106.55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.510255.9%57 W · 45 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

  • UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Cody Durden (Flyweight, Prelims)this page
  • O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.