TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xea8e…ee37

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
41
Categories scored
4
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: UFC, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 52 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFClast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT3060%18 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dana White's Contender Series: Trent Miller vs. Douglas Rodrigues (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Douglas Rodrigues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$700
UFC 330: Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Chidi Njokuani · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+35.4%+$177.06
UFC 330: Charles Johnson vs. Eduardo Chapolin (Catchweight, Prelims)backed Charles Johnson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+100.5%+$301.52
UFC Fight Night: Manoel Sousa vs. Richie Miranda (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Manoel Sousa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,800Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$808.4
UFC Fight Night: Gigi Canuto vs. Carol Foro (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)backed Carol Foro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+100%+$300
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Benoît Saint Denis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$434Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$434.33
UFC 329: Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Lone'er Kavanagh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
UFC 329: Wang Cong vs. Tracy Cortez (Women's Flyweight, Early Prelims)backed Wang Cong · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$425.93
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Rafael Fiziev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+89.6%+$447.8
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Michel Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$429Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$428.75
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Eric Nolan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$191.35
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Nursulton Ruziboev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+37%+$147.95
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Theodor Berggren · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$125
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Tahir Abdullayev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+100%+$200
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Navajo Stirling · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,416Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+29.6%+$419.66
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Ciryl Gane · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+100%+$500
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$430Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$381.32
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Gabriel Bonfim · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,416Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+75.6%+$1,070.33
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Brendan Allen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$598Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$232.6
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Sean Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+100.7%+$604.16
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Mateusz Rebecki · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
UFC Fight Night: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Jacob Malkoun · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$66.67
UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Jonathan Micallef · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$184.62
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverevbacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.