TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Manoel Sousa vs. Richie Miranda (Lightweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Manoel Sousaof Manoel Sousa, Richie Miranda
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$352,925
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$373,843

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $352,925 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Richie Miranda25c100,511$24,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,627.77454.1%40 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Manoel Sousa75c64,126$48,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,876.7715444.2%68 W · 86 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b9…dd41backed Richie Miranda25c34,365$8,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,465.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17b8…d5d1backed Richie Miranda32c20,909$6,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,644.9112448.4%60 W · 64 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x151e…cedebacked Richie Miranda12c20,035$2,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,458.21770.6%12 W · 5 L+4.5wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+71%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Manoel Sousa76c20,000$15,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,80013039.2%51 W · 79 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Manoel Sousa76c13,170$10,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,160.813452.2%70 W · 64 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Manoel Sousa74c10,361$7,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,742.1115238.2%58 W · 94 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc479…f56fbacked Manoel Sousa56c8,077$4,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,516.69988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.33per pick56cpaid+61.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8bfe…2d74backed Manoel Sousa75c7,000$5,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7506172.1%44 W · 17 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Manoel Sousa74c5,000$3,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,297.9522661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1518…2652backed Richie Miranda48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4001346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Manoel Sousa75c4,656$3,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1643644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-29.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8239…d9a3backed Richie Miranda23c4,004$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.893857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Richie Miranda25c4,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98011746.2%54 W · 63 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x689f…259cbacked Manoel Sousa73c3,545$2,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.754100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+117%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5896backed Manoel Sousa75c3,395$2,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.6314237.3%53 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Richie Miranda29c3,388$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.6233132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Manoel Sousa77c3,292$2,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.673339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Richie Miranda23c3,174$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.15152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb76b…d1f0backed Richie Miranda3c3,122$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.471060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+28.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Richie Miranda35c2,898$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.3713636.8%50 W · 86 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39cb…46e8backed Manoel Sousa74c2,821$2,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.395955.9%33 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fd2…afcebacked Richie Miranda10c2,745$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.671546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea8e…ee37backed Manoel Sousa69c2,608$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.43060%18 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed Richie Miranda14c2,193$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2edd…e968backed Manoel Sousa75c2,162$1,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.973666.7%24 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Richie Miranda26c2,152$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.5817050.6%86 W · 84 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Richie Miranda49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9805152.9%27 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dad…1d41backed Manoel Sousa76c1,974$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.681729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.5wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-38.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Richie Miranda18c1,800$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.1626352.1%137 W · 126 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+14.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x01f9…964abacked Richie Miranda22c1,742$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.15837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed Richie Miranda41c1,597$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6501947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+27.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61d4…3593backed Richie Miranda19c1,549$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.934447.7%21 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Richie Miranda6c1,526$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.15254%1 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-80%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf38d…eb9abacked Manoel Sousa59c1,522$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.75461.1%33 W · 21 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+26.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Manoel Sousa75c1,500$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37535564.5%229 W · 126 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Manoel Sousa68c1,386$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.429548.4%46 W · 49 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Richie Miranda9c1,356$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.53938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec5a…2e90backed Manoel Sousa74c1,325$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.452650%13 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Manoel Sousa55c1,250$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.854656.5%26 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Richie Miranda25c1,200$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30015048.7%73 W · 77 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2ba…1883backed Richie Miranda17c1,194$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.981020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Manoel Sousa71c1,192$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.2222438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Richie Miranda44c1,072$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.325273.1%38 W · 14 L+8.1wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+40.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x92d8…a656backed Manoel Sousa75c1,050$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2635569.1%38 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Richie Miranda30c1,000$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.1612845.3%58 W · 70 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Richie Miranda26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2608461.9%52 W · 32 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+28.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x43e0…8618backed Richie Miranda19c972$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.498434.5%29 W · 55 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67bf…f983backed Manoel Sousa51c970.95$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.962045%9 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+80.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Richie Miranda32c951.66$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.1215933.3%53 W · 106 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Manoel Sousa54c919.89$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.8912557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Manoel Sousa73c845.35$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.1412052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf51…8bfabacked Richie Miranda12c843.28$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.996147.5%29 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Manoel Sousa62c794.46$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.8811140.5%45 W · 66 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Manoel Sousa76c792.75$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.265655.4%31 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c75…227fbacked Manoel Sousa52c761.54$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.543348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Manoel Sousa63c757.35$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.611457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Manoel Sousa68c754.54$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.5426140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Manoel Sousa76c737$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.8841754%225 W · 192 L+12.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4502…9eedbacked Richie Miranda16c731.49$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.121957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+66.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Manoel Sousa71c720.63$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.9832545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e9…9324backed Manoel Sousa61c720$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.93458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1507…e175backed Richie Miranda9c696.23$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.610746.7%50 W · 57 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefa3…d08bbacked Manoel Sousa73c696.07$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.664568.9%31 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6739…132cbacked Richie Miranda7c691.7$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaef…2665backed Manoel Sousa73c685.07$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.071471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03dc…99e1backed Richie Miranda15c671.54$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.739060%54 W · 36 L+11.5wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+28.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcfb2…126abacked Manoel Sousa73c668.18$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.431266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8546…35b8backed Richie Miranda6c666.66$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5108…29cbbacked Manoel Sousa76c657.89$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.8916158.4%94 W · 67 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f4a…7aa2backed Manoel Sousa76c657.89$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.893458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Manoel Sousa58c642$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.7913951.1%71 W · 68 L+10.2wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09b5…7e72backed Richie Miranda7c632.79$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.31338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Manoel Sousa73c604.57$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.4638153.5%204 W · 177 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ea…1c22backed Manoel Sousa79c539.26$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.23956.4%22 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd738…eeeebacked Richie Miranda31c505.44$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.7513248.5%64 W · 68 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked Manoel Sousa67c500$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.595255.8%29 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+23.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c0c…7c83backed Manoel Sousa50c499.99$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2507949.4%39 W · 40 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Richie Miranda26c499.97$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Richie Miranda11c452$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0212451.6%64 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Richie Miranda9c424.31$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9617524%42 W · 133 L-22.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Manoel Sousa76c418.79$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.51955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Richie Miranda13c418.59$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0326736%96 W · 171 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e3d…bf10backed Richie Miranda6c418.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x676e…28c5backed Richie Miranda27c409.3$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.512615.4%4 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f22…6482backed Manoel Sousa74c405.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.419756.7%55 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Richie Miranda5c400$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.145418.5%10 W · 44 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51e6…80d2backed Richie Miranda25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013940.3%56 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc860…c0b7backed Richie Miranda25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.92524%6 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-34.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Richie Miranda26c381.93$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.754934.7%17 W · 32 L-6.5wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-36.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfb8e…3dc3backed Richie Miranda26c377.95$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.272433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Richie Miranda10c362.77$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.285149%25 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ef…ff5ebacked Manoel Sousa72c347.39$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.391752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed Manoel Sousa56c314.61$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.615547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Richie Miranda6c304.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3816955.6%94 W · 75 L+23.8wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+59.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Richie Miranda26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7811937.8%45 W · 74 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc01…d914backed Richie Miranda20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.92458.3%14 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+45%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf37b…4edabacked Richie Miranda9c290$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f29…2814backed Manoel Sousa55c272.91$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.91540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.