UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Manoel Sousa vs. Richie Miranda (Lightweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27a2135f574094fac4eef247c9481a4368b199679ddf24c8394d4a4345ca44ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manoel Sousaof Manoel Sousa, Richie Miranda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $352,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $373,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $352,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Richie Miranda | 25c | 100,511$24,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,627.7 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Manoel Sousa | 75c | 64,126$48,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,876.77 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b9…dd41backed Richie Miranda | 25c | 34,365$8,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,465.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Richie Miranda | 32c | 20,909$6,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,644.91 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151e…cedebacked Richie Miranda | 12c | 20,035$2,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,458.2 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +71%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Manoel Sousa | 76c | 20,000$15,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2f…2ca8backed Manoel Sousa | 76c | 13,170$10,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,160.8 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Manoel Sousa | 74c | 10,361$7,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,742.11 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc479…f56fbacked Manoel Sousa | 56c | 8,077$4,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,516.69 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfe…2d74backed Manoel Sousa | 75c | 7,000$5,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Manoel Sousa | 74c | 5,000$3,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.95 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1518…2652backed Richie Miranda | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e5…b3a5backed Manoel Sousa | 75c | 4,656$3,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…d9a3backed Richie Miranda | 23c | 4,004$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.89 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Richie Miranda | 25c | 4,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x689f…259cbacked Manoel Sousa | 73c | 3,545$2,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +117%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5896backed Manoel Sousa | 75c | 3,395$2,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.63 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Richie Miranda | 29c | 3,388$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.62 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed Manoel Sousa | 77c | 3,292$2,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.67 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Richie Miranda | 23c | 3,174$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.1 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb76b…d1f0backed Richie Miranda | 3c | 3,122$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.47 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Richie Miranda | 35c | 2,898$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.37 | 136 | 36.8%50 W · 86 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…46e8backed Manoel Sousa | 74c | 2,821$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.39 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd2…afcebacked Richie Miranda | 10c | 2,745$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.67 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8e…ee37backed Manoel Sousa | 69c | 2,608$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.4 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…80d0backed Richie Miranda | 14c | 2,193$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2edd…e968backed Manoel Sousa | 75c | 2,162$1,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.97 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Richie Miranda | 26c | 2,152$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.58 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Richie Miranda | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dad…1d41backed Manoel Sousa | 76c | 1,974$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.68 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.5wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Richie Miranda | 18c | 1,800$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.16 | 263 | 52.1%137 W · 126 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01f9…964abacked Richie Miranda | 22c | 1,742$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5733…4c87backed Richie Miranda | 41c | 1,597$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Richie Miranda | 19c | 1,549$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.93 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked Richie Miranda | 6c | 1,526$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.15 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -80%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf38d…eb9abacked Manoel Sousa | 59c | 1,522$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.7 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Manoel Sousa | 75c | 1,500$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 355 | 64.5%229 W · 126 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Manoel Sousa | 68c | 1,386$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.42 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Richie Miranda | 9c | 1,356$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…2e90backed Manoel Sousa | 74c | 1,325$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.45 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…83b8backed Manoel Sousa | 55c | 1,250$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.85 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Richie Miranda | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…1883backed Richie Miranda | 17c | 1,194$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.98 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Manoel Sousa | 71c | 1,192$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.22 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Richie Miranda | 44c | 1,072$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.32 | 52 | 73.1%38 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…a656backed Manoel Sousa | 75c | 1,050$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Richie Miranda | 30c | 1,000$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.16 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Richie Miranda | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…8618backed Richie Miranda | 19c | 972$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.49 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…f983backed Manoel Sousa | 51c | 970.95$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.96 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Richie Miranda | 32c | 951.66$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.12 | 159 | 33.3%53 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Manoel Sousa | 54c | 919.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.89 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Manoel Sousa | 73c | 845.35$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.14 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf51…8bfabacked Richie Miranda | 12c | 843.28$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Manoel Sousa | 62c | 794.46$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.88 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Manoel Sousa | 76c | 792.75$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.26 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…227fbacked Manoel Sousa | 52c | 761.54$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.54 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…b344backed Manoel Sousa | 63c | 757.35$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.61 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Manoel Sousa | 68c | 754.54$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.54 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Manoel Sousa | 76c | 737$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.88 | 417 | 54%225 W · 192 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Richie Miranda | 16c | 731.49$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.12 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Manoel Sousa | 71c | 720.63$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.98 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…9324backed Manoel Sousa | 61c | 720$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.9 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1507…e175backed Richie Miranda | 9c | 696.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…d08bbacked Manoel Sousa | 73c | 696.07$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.66 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6739…132cbacked Richie Miranda | 7c | 691.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…2665backed Manoel Sousa | 73c | 685.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.07 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…99e1backed Richie Miranda | 15c | 671.54$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.73 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb2…126abacked Manoel Sousa | 73c | 668.18$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.43 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8546…35b8backed Richie Miranda | 6c | 666.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Manoel Sousa | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4a…7aa2backed Manoel Sousa | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Manoel Sousa | 58c | 642$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.79 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Richie Miranda | 7c | 632.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Manoel Sousa | 73c | 604.57$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.46 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ea…1c22backed Manoel Sousa | 79c | 539.26$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.2 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…eeeebacked Richie Miranda | 31c | 505.44$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.75 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Manoel Sousa | 67c | 500$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.59 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…7c83backed Manoel Sousa | 50c | 499.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…510bbacked Richie Miranda | 26c | 499.97$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Richie Miranda | 11c | 452$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Richie Miranda | 9c | 424.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Manoel Sousa | 76c | 418.79$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Richie Miranda | 13c | 418.59$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3d…bf10backed Richie Miranda | 6c | 418.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…28c5backed Richie Miranda | 27c | 409.3$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.51 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f22…6482backed Manoel Sousa | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Richie Miranda | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e6…80d2backed Richie Miranda | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 139 | 40.3%56 W · 83 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc860…c0b7backed Richie Miranda | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Richie Miranda | 26c | 381.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -6.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Richie Miranda | 26c | 377.95$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Richie Miranda | 10c | 362.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…ff5ebacked Manoel Sousa | 72c | 347.39$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.39 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed Manoel Sousa | 56c | 314.61$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.61 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Richie Miranda | 6c | 304.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Richie Miranda | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc01…d914backed Richie Miranda | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +45%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Richie Miranda | 9c | 290$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f29…2814backed Manoel Sousa | 55c | 272.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Manoel Sousa vs. Richie Miranda (Lightweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Manoel Sousa win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.