UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40196f6f21fda0802997d0a640d6cfcd2907a3ddbd21c9cc0e0df53966613217
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Yes | 44c | 2,750$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.95 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Yes | 40c | 2,161$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.61 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked No | 59c | 1,698$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 42c | 1,526$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.81 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 53c | 1,204$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.36 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed No | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…b591backed Yes | 45c | 721.08$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.08 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 55c | 679.7$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.84 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed No | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed No | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 39c | 436.59$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.88 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 67c | 433.11$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.38 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…99e1backed Yes | 34c | 350$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 42c | 325.06$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.06 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…b9f5backed No | 69c | 288.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 58c | 271$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.34 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 47c | 202.94$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.71 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5e…0381backed No | 58c | 193.16$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.63 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671d…2e26backed No | 59c | 170.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x854a…5e9ebacked No | 55c | 162$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed No | 57c | 87.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 241 | 61.8%149 W · 92 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed No | 55c | 76.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bc…42c1backed No | 56c | 54.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…b0ccbacked Yes | 57c | 47.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 30c | 36.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c05…2918backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -6.5wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -83%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 42c | 27.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 57c | 24.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabe1…af91backed No | 72c | 23.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Manoel Sousa vs. Richie Miranda (Lightweight, Prelims)Manoel Sousa won
- Will Manoel Sousa win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.