TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Gigi Canuto vs. Carol Foro (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Carol Foroof Gigi Canuto, Carol Foro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$547,088
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$554,832

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $547,088 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Carol Foro66c403,065$265,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137,205.187454.1%40 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Gigi Canuto34c200,000$68,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,999.9916244.4%72 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Gigi Canuto34c136,421$46,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,226.4115444.2%68 W · 86 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Gigi Canuto34c21,900$7,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,44611554.8%63 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Carol Foro74c16,494$12,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,313.4915736.9%58 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Gigi Canuto34c10,155$3,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,452.7114551%74 W · 71 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Gigi Canuto35c8,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8008651.2%44 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x151e…cedebacked Gigi Canuto50c7,633$3,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,790.781872.2%13 W · 5 L+5.2wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+81.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Gigi Canuto34c5,378$1,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,828.529133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Gigi Canuto36c5,063$1,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.313644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-29.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Carol Foro68c5,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.9922661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d5…8faebacked Gigi Canuto33c4,598$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5005446.3%25 W · 29 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Gigi Canuto9c2,965$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.824656.5%26 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43e0…8618backed Gigi Canuto31c2,846$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.748434.5%29 W · 55 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x885f…8ed9backed Carol Foro66c2,709$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.332070%14 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+52.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Gigi Canuto34c2,683$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.395034%17 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Gigi Canuto9c2,309$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2e78…067ebacked Carol Foro35c2,300$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,496.683839.5%15 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed Gigi Canuto51c2,085$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.533141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1aa…b4bebacked Carol Foro73c2,063$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.93577.1%27 W · 8 L+6.7wins+0.19per pick58cpaid+27.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8089…f935backed Gigi Canuto31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6202927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x64e9…9324backed Carol Foro75c1,790$1,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.053458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6870…610bbacked Gigi Canuto27c1,770$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Gigi Canuto34c1,765$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Gigi Canuto35c1,743$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.0513452.2%70 W · 64 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x61d4…3593backed Gigi Canuto16c1,662$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.194447.7%21 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Gigi Canuto32c1,656$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53012235.2%43 W · 79 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec37…85bdbacked Gigi Canuto20c1,635$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.531258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick34cpaid+68.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xef4f…4598backed Gigi Canuto7c1,606$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.442646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24ed…7f84backed Gigi Canuto31c1,562$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.33560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Carol Foro66c1,500$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51032545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b0e…bd73backed Carol Foro65c1,500$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+26.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03dc…99e1backed Carol Foro50c1,500$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7509060%54 W · 36 L+11.5wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+28.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5108…29cbbacked Gigi Canuto35c1,429$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50016158.4%94 W · 67 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed Gigi Canuto14c1,417$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1981030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Gigi Canuto19c1,400$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.0913244.7%59 W · 73 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea60…cc6bbacked Gigi Canuto34c1,380$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.12343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Carol Foro65c1,348$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.3717150.9%87 W · 84 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Carol Foro65c1,266$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.1728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-51.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Gigi Canuto35c1,263$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44226140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2ba…1883backed Gigi Canuto29c1,228$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.861020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Gigi Canuto29c1,165$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.8320837%77 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed Gigi Canuto35c1,151$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.842445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Gigi Canuto54c1,100$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.7454056.7%306 W · 234 L-1.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d8…a656backed Carol Foro69c1,050$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.55569.1%38 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Gigi Canuto35c1,002$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.63955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Gigi Canuto33c1,001$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.088220.7%17 W · 65 L-12.6wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5ee0…d6a6backed Gigi Canuto35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501625%4 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-44%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Carol Foro67c999.99$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3308461.9%52 W · 32 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+28.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Gigi Canuto8c975.86$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4412449.2%61 W · 63 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f29…2814backed Gigi Canuto35c958.74$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.56540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Carol Foro50c923.82$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.915655.4%31 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed Gigi Canuto34c900$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3061973.7%14 W · 5 L+4.4wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Gigi Canuto39c863.53$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.6522438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5896backed Gigi Canuto10c848.48$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8514237.3%53 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Gigi Canuto34c824$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.1642254.3%229 W · 193 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Carol Foro59c822.5$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.229649%47 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Gigi Canuto36c816.82$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.0822847.8%109 W · 119 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1b…724fbacked Gigi Canuto32c800$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2564981.6%40 W · 9 L+7.8wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+22.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7358…1d32backed Gigi Canuto71c789.55$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.567647.4%36 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Gigi Canuto13c732.54$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2313836.2%50 W · 88 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f4a…7aa2backed Carol Foro69c724.64$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.643857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+58.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd738…eeeebacked Gigi Canuto25c698.07$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.2813248.5%64 W · 68 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Gigi Canuto31c694.82$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.3916945.6%77 W · 92 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Carol Foro75c693.16$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17438553.2%205 W · 180 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaef…2665backed Carol Foro74c675.83$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.831471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Gigi Canuto33c662.99$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.987152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Carol Foro60c662.39$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.1610546.7%49 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1507…e175backed Carol Foro63c612.93$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.0110746.7%50 W · 57 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ea…2f71backed Gigi Canuto56c611.91$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.78944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Gigi Canuto28c607.54$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.8227448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea8e…ee37backed Carol Foro50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3003060%18 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Gigi Canuto28c550.28$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.8820348.3%98 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a63…5dcebacked Gigi Canuto37c540.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004951%25 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Gigi Canuto22c523.13$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9136048.3%174 W · 186 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Gigi Canuto32c507$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.248636%31 W · 55 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Gigi Canuto33c499.99$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.7526552.1%138 W · 127 L+23.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+17.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Carol Foro75c499.41$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.8315933.3%53 W · 106 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbecd…f54ebacked Carol Foro68c472$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.042462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Carol Foro60c440.62$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.6211240.2%45 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Gigi Canuto29c423$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6212451.6%64 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Gigi Canuto6c388.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.975418.5%10 W · 44 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed Carol Foro65c384$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.4683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick55cpaid+57.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c2d…6443backed Gigi Canuto35c360.6$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.214035%14 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Carol Foro66c359.11$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.6912038.3%46 W · 74 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3ed…69d8backed Gigi Canuto17c352.94$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Carol Foro45c332.8$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.3714551%74 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81a9…df08backed Gigi Canuto32c312$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.841457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed Gigi Canuto12c301.43$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.084746.8%22 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Gigi Canuto7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21254%1 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-80%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4ae…1b3dbacked Carol Foro74c295.84$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.793083.3%25 W · 5 L+5.3wins+0.18per pick66cpaid+21.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb399…9435backed Carol Foro69c294.9$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.935560%33 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8959…68e2backed Gigi Canuto34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006142.6%26 W · 35 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4a7…898abacked Carol Foro57c232.51$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.216168.9%42 W · 19 L+7.8wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+18.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Carol Foro63c228.9$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.695330.2%16 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-35.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed Carol Foro78c224.68$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.685646.4%26 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked Carol Foro51c217.73$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.733435.3%12 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-25.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Gigi Canuto35c214.29$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7551533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Carol Foro66c213.7$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.62556%14 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe766…7843backed Gigi Canuto43c207.57$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.731952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.