UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x685f22061d88e2223d71be35e7ebdbb11a561a0ce1d3563a85a806a93c4e59bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 53c | 1,370$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.03 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 28c | 848.44$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.31 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 73c | 587$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.63 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…b9f5backed No | 38c | 530.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade3…b321backed No | 25c | 297$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.23 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked No | 44c | 190.37$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Yes | 31c | 179.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.18 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked No | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 64c | 114$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 60c | 101.41$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfeb…314cbacked Yes | 53c | 79.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 48c | 62.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 29c | 53.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 46.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 63c | 31.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Gigi Canuto vs. Carol Foro (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)Carol Foro won
- Will Carol Foro win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.