UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35bbd525e96e50ba33759268d697a49bf116efaf2f8c42fbb04083a187368651
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 64c | 106,455$68,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68,089.73 | 200 | 48.5%97 W · 103 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 36c | 100,000$36,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,000 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed2…4671backed Over | 37c | 2,703$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702.7 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 36c | 1,572$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.14 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Under | 56c | 1,100$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 64c | 835$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.4 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Over | 36c | 833.33$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.33 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Over | 44c | 710.25$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.95 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…e779backed Over | 37c | 550$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed5f…5c45backed Over | 37c | 535.5$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Over | 36c | 516.52$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.57 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Over | 47c | 368.51$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.68 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea53…e1ebbacked Over | 37c | 216.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Over | 36c | 142.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 37c | 118.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.93 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 63c | 99.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed Under | 64c | 75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1d…cc28backed Over | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Over | 45c | 68.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 35c | 66.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 37c | 51.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3776…e17abacked Over | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x801f…3c62backed Under | 64c | 46.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 35c | 46.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6509…2dc5backed Under | 64c | 19.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Gigi Canuto vs. Carol Foro (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)Carol Foro won
- Will Carol Foro win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.