UFC · resolved market
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56a5d64f88df4f30074b7f2a931cf2a49b640ca0865bcb3407ce6de1c5c161e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grant Dawsonof Grant Dawson, Mateusz Rebecki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,193,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,256,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,193,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 493 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Grant Dawson | 58c | 670,269$389,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280,691.31 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Mateusz Rebecki | 42c | 250,000$104,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103,999.98 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Mateusz Rebecki | 42c | 100,000$42,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,999.99 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Mateusz Rebecki | 41c | 82,448$33,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,638.13 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Mateusz Rebecki | 42c | 80,000$33,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,600 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Mateusz Rebecki | 42c | 63,738$26,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,769.91 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Mateusz Rebecki | 42c | 60,000$25,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,200 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Mateusz Rebecki | 42c | 47,740$20,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,050.68 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…6bfebacked Grant Dawson | 59c | 44,890$26,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,404.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…427ebacked Mateusz Rebecki | 2c | 30,363$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…5295backed Grant Dawson | 56c | 25,008$13,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,104.62 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Mateusz Rebecki | 42c | 25,000$10,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,500 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…82c9backed Mateusz Rebecki | 43c | 20,930$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,000 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Grant Dawson | 55c | 20,241$11,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,108.22 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fd…3313backed Mateusz Rebecki | 42c | 20,000$8,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Mateusz Rebecki | 41c | 18,888$7,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,744.08 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Grant Dawson | 61c | 16,336$9,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,437.88 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Mateusz Rebecki | 64c | 13,776$8,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,756.35 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Grant Dawson | 72c | 11,102$7,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,134.46 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Mateusz Rebecki | 42c | 11,000$4,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,619.98 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8c…e275backed Mateusz Rebecki | 39c | 10,792$4,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,208.69 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db5…e279backed Mateusz Rebecki | 55c | 10,457$5,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,732.08 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Grant Dawson | 58c | 10,016$5,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,165.06 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…d420backed Mateusz Rebecki | 55c | 10,000$5,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,483.24 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b9…7126backed Grant Dawson | 60c | 10,000$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed Grant Dawson | 43c | 10,000$4,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,699.97 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed Grant Dawson | 72c | 8,390$6,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.14 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Mateusz Rebecki | 43c | 7,598$3,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,275.53 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Mateusz Rebecki | 42c | 6,000$2,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,525.44 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Grant Dawson | 59c | 5,555$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Mateusz Rebecki | 40c | 5,471$2,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,173.18 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Grant Dawson | 56c | 5,007$2,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,203.25 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…9889backed Mateusz Rebecki | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Grant Dawson | 61c | 4,896$2,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,909.55 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2258…0eecbacked Mateusz Rebecki | 42c | 4,762$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Mateusz Rebecki | 43c | 4,700$2,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,021 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…0386backed Grant Dawson | 55c | 4,582$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,061.82 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Grant Dawson | 35c | 4,512$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,947.89 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…7980backed Mateusz Rebecki | 41c | 4,325$1,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,773.25 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…274dbacked Grant Dawson | 58c | 4,310$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,810.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Grant Dawson | 55c | 4,218$2,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.87 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Grant Dawson | 58c | 4,000$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9f…30b1backed Grant Dawson | 59c | 3,524$2,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,444.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Mateusz Rebecki | 42c | 3,332$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.96 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…8078backed Grant Dawson | 58c | 3,296$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.44 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535c…96babacked Mateusz Rebecki | 44c | 3,162$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Grant Dawson | 56c | 3,006$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.29 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb69…cfd1backed Grant Dawson | 50c | 2,997$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,497 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked Grant Dawson | 35c | 2,961$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,924.56 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Mateusz Rebecki | 37c | 2,800$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.8 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45ab…bd34backed Mateusz Rebecki | 42c | 2,762$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7358…1d32backed Mateusz Rebecki | 45c | 2,692$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Mateusz Rebecki | 25c | 2,650$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…fbbcbacked Grant Dawson | 45c | 2,597$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.56 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…2f94backed Grant Dawson | 58c | 2,566$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b12…d642backed Mateusz Rebecki | 17c | 2,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00ff…f7adbacked Mateusz Rebecki | 43c | 2,500$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbba…c191backed Grant Dawson | 55c | 2,352$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.33 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 53cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56f9…c2acbacked Mateusz Rebecki | 43c | 2,332$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Grant Dawson | 60c | 2,212$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.64 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32bf…ec60backed Mateusz Rebecki | 17c | 2,143$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Grant Dawson | 75c | 2,142$1,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.6 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Mateusz Rebecki | 40c | 2,106$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.53 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Mateusz Rebecki | 38c | 2,029$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.55 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Mateusz Rebecki | 43c | 2,005$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.06 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…0009backed Grant Dawson | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x697f…b756backed Mateusz Rebecki | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…ec2ebacked Grant Dawson | 63c | 1,800$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed Grant Dawson | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.13 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…4d70backed Grant Dawson | 80c | 1,712$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.72 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…1080backed Grant Dawson | 69c | 1,650$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.5 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Grant Dawson | 68c | 1,650$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Grant Dawson | 58c | 1,600$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.16 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…4e8bbacked Mateusz Rebecki | 18c | 1,600$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.57 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Mateusz Rebecki | 43c | 1,569$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.51 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Grant Dawson | 59c | 1,519$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x360b…982fbacked Grant Dawson | 59c | 1,500$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed Mateusz Rebecki | 42c | 1,429$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8982…59fbbacked Mateusz Rebecki | 59c | 1,418$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.84 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Grant Dawson | 57c | 1,404$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.51 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Grant Dawson | 56c | 1,392$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.57 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Mateusz Rebecki | 42c | 1,369$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.14 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Mateusz Rebecki | 30c | 1,321$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.77 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe153…ba59backed Mateusz Rebecki | 3c | 1,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…98c4backed Mateusz Rebecki | 42c | 1,185$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.53 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed99…2677backed Mateusz Rebecki | 43c | 1,153$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0c4bbacked Mateusz Rebecki | 40c | 1,088$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.63 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Grant Dawson | 42c | 1,080$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.53 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Grant Dawson | 59c | 1,017$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.95 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Grant Dawson | 59c | 1,012$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Mateusz Rebecki | 38c | 1,007$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.92 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e62…f6ffbacked Mateusz Rebecki | 30c | 1,000$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…7c83backed Grant Dawson | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Grant Dawson | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Mateusz Rebecki | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f01…0d90backed Grant Dawson | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…9e90backed Mateusz Rebecki | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99eb…0464backed Mateusz Rebecki | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +101%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Mateusz Rebecki | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x370f…c4e4backed Grant Dawson | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Grant Dawson win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Mateusz Rebecki win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.