UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf0b91f9742ecf031fa1536013cb08d4f4b7c56f5e5bf780173bc45835ac515d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 47c | 113.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 51c | 87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc3…9a94backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed No | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…0b63backed No | 54c | 58.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…06b3backed Yes | 49c | 55.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…0fd1backed Yes | 48c | 53.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d6…8267backed Yes | 48c | 52.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…a55ebacked No | 62c | 40.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Yes | 48c | 39.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 52c | 38.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Yes | 38c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf99…9840backed No | 51c | 25.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 52c | 22.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +45%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 57c | 18.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)Grant Dawson won
- Will Grant Dawson win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Mateusz Rebecki win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.