UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dbbbda15478a5ccc0c76fb6ac3fb1a8a4e086efaa6939ff84f6b899f250bf81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2785…ce75backed Over | 55c | 6,365$3,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,840.84 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 6,142$2,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,734.7 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.99 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Over | 53c | 487.99$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.36 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Over | 53c | 449.23$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.94 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7259…a6c4backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Over | 53c | 188.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 44c | 145.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 51c | 112.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20b…3ae4backed Over | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…93ccbacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…b34dbacked Over | 56c | 33.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)Grant Dawson won
- Will Grant Dawson win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Mateusz Rebecki win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.