UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfea389dda228fdbe73055a51849fea7e60a26d5e4731715e1012e82dca24bb27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 46c | 5,888$2,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,175.52 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Under | 48c | 3,258$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,694 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf799…3040backed Under | 51c | 2,455$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…cfd7backed Over | 53c | 2,358$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b6…4ababacked Over | 55c | 2,222$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.05 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Over | 53c | 1,849$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.18 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 49c | 1,742$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.65 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 1,230$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.13 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Over | 53c | 800$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Under | 49c | 800$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…2ed4backed Over | 59c | 788.21$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.71 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 44c | 657.14$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Over | 56c | 600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 49c | 599.98$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.99 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8e…ee37backed Over | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked Over | 58c | 488.79$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.5 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Under | 51c | 469.98$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.35 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…8408backed Over | 52c | 435.49$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +51%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00ff…f7adbacked Over | 50c | 433.9$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.95 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf99…9840backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ef…90e2backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 46c | 379.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.2 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef0…fcf7backed Over | 50c | 329.98$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d8…dd17backed Over | 58c | 291.86$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb2…4d80backed Over | 53c | 283.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Over | 53c | 245.28$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 36c | 217.07$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.92 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 38c | 214$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.51 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a65…e883backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 66cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Under | 44c | 175.57$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…80f2backed Over | 60c | 167.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 45c | 153.64$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…428abacked Over | 53c | 149.06$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…a806backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcee9…8e38backed Under | 45c | 110.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Over | 55c | 102.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3c…29bebacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed Under | 45c | 89.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 181 | 60.8%110 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 52c | 86.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…37f1backed Under | 50c | 83.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9530…ce5abacked Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 55cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f3…4e79backed Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…06b3backed Over | 53c | 50.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 45c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 42c | 45.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8553…457abacked Over | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…b3fcbacked Over | 53c | 42.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Over | 54c | 42.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc589…f838backed Under | 51c | 42.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Under | 40c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.43per pick | 47cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7e15…a116backed Under | 50c | 35.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Under | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…328fbacked Over | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1823…8e49backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92ed…21dcbacked Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…1fafbacked Over | 53c | 28.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Under | 40c | 28.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…b7aebacked Over | 53c | 27.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28d3…50b2backed Over | 59c | 25.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 45c | 24.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d6…5d70backed Over | 53c | 21.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card)Rafael Fiziev won
- Will Manuel Torres win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Rafael Fiziev win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.