UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5c7f1a0c0afbdf71ffd777607c58d6243a2b6236f49f21efd3d56db55140585
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Daniil Donchenkoof Theodor Berggren, Daniil Donchenko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36a7…b6e9backed Theodor Berggren | 18c | 20,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…7980backed Theodor Berggren | 17c | 15,252$2,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,654.33 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…a0a9backed Theodor Berggren | 18c | 12,915$2,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,324.69 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Theodor Berggren | 18c | 12,442$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239.57 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Theodor Berggren | 19c | 6,614$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.66 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…1b86backed Theodor Berggren | 18c | 6,445$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.09 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe988…cf23backed Theodor Berggren | 18c | 4,391$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Theodor Berggren | 14c | 4,178$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.77 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Theodor Berggren | 11c | 3,966$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.89 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…7ef8backed Theodor Berggren | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…e495backed Theodor Berggren | 18c | 2,928$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddc…03c3backed Theodor Berggren | 18c | 2,767$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.15 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Theodor Berggren | 19c | 2,721$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…c9eabacked Theodor Berggren | 18c | 2,450$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…b6abbacked Theodor Berggren | 18c | 2,337$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.66 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Theodor Berggren | 11c | 2,199$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.62 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b12…d642backed Theodor Berggren | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0c4bbacked Theodor Berggren | 19c | 1,564$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.25 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Theodor Berggren | 9c | 1,548$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.7 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Theodor Berggren | 17c | 1,528$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.77 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked Theodor Berggren | 14c | 1,293$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.16 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…3426backed Theodor Berggren | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Theodor Berggren | 18c | 999.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Theodor Berggren | 14c | 993.8$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.58 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Theodor Berggren | 19c | 790$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.1 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…83b2backed Theodor Berggren | 14c | 720.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5896backed Theodor Berggren | 16c | 691.73$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Theodor Berggren | 10c | 684.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Theodor Berggren | 8c | 664.94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 159 | 33.3%53 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea8e…ee37backed Theodor Berggren | 19c | 657.89$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Theodor Berggren | 17c | 619.17$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Theodor Berggren | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f49…231dbacked Theodor Berggren | 19c | 525.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…e0c3backed Theodor Berggren | 19c | 503.84$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Theodor Berggren | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Daniil Donchenko | 80c | 430$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Theodor Berggren | 18c | 375.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa160…442bbacked Theodor Berggren | 18c | 368.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Theodor Berggren | 14c | 350.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Theodor Berggren | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…e8c1backed Theodor Berggren | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Theodor Berggren | 18c | 276.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8c…c014backed Theodor Berggren | 20c | 246.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Theodor Berggren | 18c | 222.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…f649backed Theodor Berggren | 15c | 198.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Theodor Berggren | 21c | 180$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Theodor Berggren | 13c | 175$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Theodor Berggren | 7c | 160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…8323backed Theodor Berggren | 17c | 152.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…9f95backed Theodor Berggren | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a70…0519backed Theodor Berggren | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Daniil Donchenko | 80c | 104.89$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Theodor Berggren | 12c | 102.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa214…0653backed Theodor Berggren | 18c | 100.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Theodor Berggren | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Theodor Berggren | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…0b4bbacked Theodor Berggren | 19c | 92.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf19b…bf9fbacked Theodor Berggren | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Theodor Berggren | 14c | 87.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe160…b6b9backed Theodor Berggren | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…1fafbacked Theodor Berggren | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Theodor Berggren | 14c | 78.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Theodor Berggren | 14c | 73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed Theodor Berggren | 19c | 68.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Theodor Berggren | 17c | 67.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…9ddabacked Theodor Berggren | 19c | 66.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.30per pick | 39cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Theodor Berggren | 17c | 59.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Daniil Donchenko | 79c | 41.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x583d…d79bbacked Daniil Donchenko | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Daniil Donchenko | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Daniil Donchenko | 80c | 19.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Daniil Donchenko | 78c | 13.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a68…4f4dbacked Daniil Donchenko | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf698…3c36backed Daniil Donchenko | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Daniil Donchenko win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.