UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0003fdd020c4911da3d439de51987e6ce1c00a132962f4071a950d32345c128
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 56c | 9,236$5,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,171.36 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed2…4671backed Under | 44c | 3,416$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,916.49 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Under | 44c | 3,305$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850.53 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under | 44c | 1,364$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.64 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Over | 57c | 524.99$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.24 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 42c | 376.16$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.14 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 61c | 340.37$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.78 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Under | 42c | 315.21$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.97 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b6…4ababacked Under | 38c | 276.07$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.16 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 57c | 272.17$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.69 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Under | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Under | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.82 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Over | 57c | 162.12$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9608…8cf3backed Under | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 44c | 115.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba9…8e54backed Under | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 58c | 111$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Under | 33c | 107.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.07 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed Under | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Under | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a17…38b0backed Under | 59c | 97.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +334.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee9…8e38backed Over | 57c | 87.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Under | 53c | 84.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Under | 40c | 81.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 45c | 49.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f19…77e3backed Under | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f3…4e79backed Under | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 44c | 35.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 60cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Under | 43c | 23.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…2552backed Over | 56c | 20.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 58c | 17.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims)Daniil Donchenko won
- Will Daniil Donchenko win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.