UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ff81c21deb19f3351b4977c75855c9d5de73a851e12524706f7e2c1e9afbcc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 49c | 10,305$5,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,255.53 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…20d1backed Under | 51c | 9,531$4,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,860.96 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 51c | 1,259$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.09 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 52c | 1,178$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.39 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9000…93d9backed Under | 49c | 718.85$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…cd56backed Over | 50c | 462.44$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.22 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 50c | 418.14$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.1 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Under | 49c | 395.67$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.88 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 51c | 263.2$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.23 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 50c | 193.94$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e5…9d7cbacked Under | 49c | 148.38$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Under | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 51c | 85.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f3…4e79backed Under | 51c | 77.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 49c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…3c23backed Under | 48c | 60.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Under | 49c | 59.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b01…125ebacked Under | 49c | 48.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Over | 50c | 34.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Under | 49c | 31.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…f680backed Under | 49c | 20.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…eb30backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Cody Durden (Flyweight, Prelims)Cody Durden won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.