UFC · resolved market
Will Khamzat Chimaev fight Sean Strickland next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadf03f647373c255cbb009290f824eea57cf6ac46b06e6fb835f1da3bddb8b48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,712 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Yes | 16c | 543$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.12 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…9febbacked No | 19c | 515.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 67c | 443.49$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed No | 16c | 398.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Yes | 67c | 348.07$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.34 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 49c | 335.58$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.87 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…0c71backed No | 44c | 267.18$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.29 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.26per pick | 61cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 16c | 234.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4a…ae97backed No | 47c | 230$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdffe…2c52backed Yes | 80c | 200.91$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed No | 46c | 190$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 74c | 155.43$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed No | 46c | 140$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Yes | 53c | 125.87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 13c | 121.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339c…9559backed No | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 53c | 43.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f1…14b7backed Yes | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d1…3202backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa5…30c1backed Yes | 63c | 31.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 52c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +130%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 58c | 23.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x046e…1d14backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamzat Chimaev fight Sean Strickland next?this page
- Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Sean Strickland next?No won
- Will Nassourdine Imavov fight Sean Strickland next?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.