UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4080978c4f7e52d80ddc271a7fe4cdb2e40c803d601e402efbdf373ed8391dfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colby Thicknesseof Vince Morales, Colby Thicknesse
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $306,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $325,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $306,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 294 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Vince Morales | 44c | 62,963$27,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,496.33 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Colby Thicknesse | 57c | 47,177$26,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,340.56 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Colby Thicknesse | 51c | 28,026$14,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,868.02 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8c…e275backed Colby Thicknesse | 55c | 27,000$14,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,165.63 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Colby Thicknesse | 65c | 26,821$17,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,416.23 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Vince Morales | 35c | 25,681$8,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,988.08 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2f…2ca8backed Colby Thicknesse | 57c | 20,000$11,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,643.07 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Vince Morales | 55c | 12,987$7,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,165.41 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d2…ac37backed Vince Morales | 43c | 11,191$4,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,812.29 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…396dbacked Vince Morales | 45c | 11,144$5,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,015 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Vince Morales | 55c | 9,907$5,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,466.62 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Vince Morales | 44c | 6,736$2,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,963.76 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Colby Thicknesse | 54c | 6,452$3,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,945.9 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Vince Morales | 43c | 6,443$2,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,797.06 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…017fbacked Vince Morales | 52c | 6,049$3,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,144.36 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87b6…4ababacked Vince Morales | 33c | 5,500$1,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,812.99 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb045…d4cebacked Colby Thicknesse | 56c | 5,357$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,357.14 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed Vince Morales | 55c | 5,135$2,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,824.23 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…5295backed Colby Thicknesse | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500.08 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Vince Morales | 44c | 4,500$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…7980backed Vince Morales | 42c | 4,325$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.46 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed2…4671backed Vince Morales | 47c | 4,255$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…6280backed Vince Morales | 43c | 4,224$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.26 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Vince Morales | 45c | 2,778$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Colby Thicknesse | 48c | 2,679$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.65 | 159 | 33.3%53 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Vince Morales | 42c | 2,522$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.26 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Vince Morales | 41c | 2,318$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.58 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Vince Morales | 2c | 2,300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f4…2b15backed Vince Morales | 48c | 2,114$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.1 | 161 | 56.5%91 W · 70 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe160…b6b9backed Vince Morales | 3c | 2,053$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Colby Thicknesse | 53c | 2,047$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.98 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Vince Morales | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.99 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0a…3540backed Colby Thicknesse | 57c | 1,988$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Vince Morales | 2c | 1,950$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Vince Morales | 44c | 1,860$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.49 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Colby Thicknesse | 47c | 1,832$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.71 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2258…0eecbacked Colby Thicknesse | 56c | 1,741$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.07 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Vince Morales | 42c | 1,667$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.14 | 417 | 54%225 W · 192 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99b1…196abacked Vince Morales | 54c | 1,650$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.19 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked Colby Thicknesse | 67c | 1,575$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.77 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc0…c9e8backed Colby Thicknesse | 49c | 1,388$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.79 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Vince Morales | 35c | 1,383$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.46 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Vince Morales | 44c | 1,379$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.9 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Vince Morales | 1c | 1,330$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Vince Morales | 43c | 1,301$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.43 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0c4bbacked Colby Thicknesse | 55c | 1,243$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.66 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Colby Thicknesse | 55c | 1,230$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.45 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Vince Morales | 45c | 1,124$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.7 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddc…03c3backed Vince Morales | 42c | 1,111$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.8 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Colby Thicknesse | 63c | 1,100$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.1 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Colby Thicknesse | 56c | 1,095$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.59 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…89a0backed Vince Morales | 4c | 1,068$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…decfbacked Colby Thicknesse | 58c | 1,064$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.79 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Colby Thicknesse | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…7c83backed Colby Thicknesse | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…1fcabacked Colby Thicknesse | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked Colby Thicknesse | 49c | 1,000$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.78 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Colby Thicknesse | 56c | 999.96$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.98 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -6.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Colby Thicknesse | 56c | 999.92$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.97 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Colby Thicknesse | 55c | 984.58$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Vince Morales | 40c | 971.35$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.51 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Colby Thicknesse | 60c | 921.68$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.79 | 52 | 73.1%38 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…427ebacked Colby Thicknesse | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Vince Morales | 46c | 867.4$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.82 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Colby Thicknesse | 49c | 862.1$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.74 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c2…58e9backed Colby Thicknesse | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0b…c5ffbacked Vince Morales | 59c | 851.68$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…fe01backed Vince Morales | 61c | 825.26$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26d8…0175backed Vince Morales | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Colby Thicknesse | 56c | 795.05$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.33 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Colby Thicknesse | 55c | 786.75$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.81 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Colby Thicknesse | 48c | 786.04$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.45 | 277 | 43%119 W · 158 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Vince Morales | 43c | 730.51$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…5ae1backed Vince Morales | 44c | 727.27$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…bbedbacked Vince Morales | 48c | 706.49$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.08 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…5431backed Vince Morales | 57c | 699.58$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Vince Morales | 45c | 669.96$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.78 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Colby Thicknesse | 66c | 663.15$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.12 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a57…7615backed Colby Thicknesse | 62c | 638.13$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.13 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Vince Morales | 43c | 573.28$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.51 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Vince Morales | 44c | 571.08$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cee…b72abacked Vince Morales | 42c | 551.59$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.67 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Vince Morales | 56c | 549.64$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.66 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Colby Thicknesse | 57c | 524.79$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.79 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Colby Thicknesse | 52c | 521.59$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.36 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b1…724ebacked Colby Thicknesse | 55c | 506.94$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Vince Morales | 43c | 502.79$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.2 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Colby Thicknesse | 57c | 502$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.86 | 102 | 70.6%72 W · 30 L | +10.5wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…90e6backed Colby Thicknesse | 58c | 500.81$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked Colby Thicknesse | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93cb…32c0backed Vince Morales | 42c | 497.61$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Vince Morales | 52c | 485.85$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.96 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7358…1d32backed Vince Morales | 36c | 477.57$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.93 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Vince Morales | 44c | 477.27$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe641…0f63backed Colby Thicknesse | 56c | 469$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.36 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd417…327abacked Colby Thicknesse | 56c | 460$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.4 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…80d0backed Colby Thicknesse | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…53dabacked Vince Morales | 44c | 447.62$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.95 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Colby Thicknesse | 46c | 434.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.94 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Colby Thicknesse | 55c | 431$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.63 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims)this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.