TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,055,576

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,055,576 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb623…4203backed No10c146,341$14,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,100.9933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No13c30,000$3,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,835.361513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-75.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x137d…8358backed No0c20,117$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4966…81debacked No1c16,361$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.292119%4 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick10cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc740…217ebacked No1c15,084$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bc3…73d1backed No1c14,529$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1910340.8%42 W · 61 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aff…7035backed No4c12,933$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.861225%3 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No2c12,111$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.115623.2%13 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c11,374$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.71712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3790…f78fbacked No0c11,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301520%3 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-52.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No17c8,554$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.126841.2%28 W · 40 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+0.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c8,491$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.737663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No14c7,748$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.672313%3 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-79.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x617f…4336backed No1c7,455$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1350%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c24…7d59backed No1c6,144$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No1c5,825$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-80.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No2c5,766$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.343283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ce6…311ebacked No3c5,400$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16440%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x081c…4434backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-67%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaae2…dbdabacked No1c5,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-48.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca6…73e3backed No3c5,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508327.7%23 W · 60 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c4,876$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.522061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed No2c4,776$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.34333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No15c4,603$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.66273.7%1 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-86.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1317…8aecbacked Yes61c4,127$2,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.29250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6a…be7ebacked Yes69c3,553$2,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.282352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed Yes79c3,405$2,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.7757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff2…9070backed No1c3,081$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No2c3,000$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5932.2%2 W · 91 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55c9…fa12backed No0c2,872$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf8f…8bbabacked No0c2,750$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18d8…b166backed No4c2,500$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked No1c2,398$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ce…54a5backed Yes74c2,246$1,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.71425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick68cpaid-66.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xea00…42e8backed No9c2,108$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc581…de6bbacked No1c2,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9a6…c80fbacked No1c2,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ae4…a127backed No10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae5…4f22backed Yes80c1,971$1,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.952065%13 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No20c1,954$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.8535712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3c88…22ddbacked No1c1,818$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9521…3e48backed No2c1,712$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9322…d2e8backed No1c1,618$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eeb…bd84backed Yes73c1,565$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8262…eddebacked No29c1,535$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.6614335.7%51 W · 92 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a2…54c2backed No2c1,429$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.784835.4%17 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+41%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9582…9891backed No11c1,409$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.791741.2%7 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.18per pick23cpaid+12.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c55…9e26backed No50c1,320$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.414641.3%19 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8b…f690backed No1c1,244$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No2c1,211$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.952333.4%8 W · 225 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab1c…35a7backed No3c1,200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363823.7%9 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-57.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd221…54fdbacked No25c1,189$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.031741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f0f…6e2ebacked Yes67c1,183$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ca…ffc3backed Yes67c1,159$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No32c1,150$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No32c1,150$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3681643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5bd…ceaabacked No1c1,111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.08616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-70.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb3b…a2b6backed No2c1,104$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf688…ac81backed Yes49c1,067$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a9…5976backed No3c1,011$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e37…cccbbacked No4c1,007$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2610143.6%44 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No12c1,000$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.3523841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x53a5…59a4backed No4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x052c…b3fdbacked No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.97922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-62%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ada…9cc2backed No1c995.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbab2…e819backed No3c940.39$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92dc…5503backed No1c939.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No8c900.15$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694721.3%10 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe24c…8f5bbacked No16c848$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-35.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa66b…0b8bbacked No2c838.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.19714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-80.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd0b…0f27backed No36c832.07$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No9c818.69$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.442377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98bf…6945backed No2c800$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde26…2de2backed Yes78c791.05$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.251741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No24c787.75$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.52944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9c7…d9e8backed Yes46c765.39$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.654148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8564…d18fbacked No2c760.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No34c753.16$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.321050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe3…c1eebacked Yes78c709.39$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.392317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-76.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2138…8a11backed No4c700$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc150…e85fbacked Yes72c683.42$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.873100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f01…c213backed Yes62c680$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5e4…6a0ebacked No31c641.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8f…c78dbacked Yes79c606.56$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+97.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c04…c772backed No17c605.03$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3436…6e37backed No10c604.34$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6581…0206backed Yes61c600$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2362045%9 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x88c7…a1debacked No11c600$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.21020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-53.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No27c591.43$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.861612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-65.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdc6…000abacked No2c588.82$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No8c586.28$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.433315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78f3…6517backed Yes50c551.5$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.641040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7b4…951dbacked No3c540.34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b69…66b0backed No11c533$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.214337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a66…7bd1backed Yes66c515.52$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec70…e529backed No16c502.33$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+90.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc995…cd75backed Yes50c502.09$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65dd…4664backed No5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick66cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9fa…cecfbacked No15c492.16$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87f4…9ed0backed No14c469.93$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.154235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.