Token Launches · resolved market
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33a5f0ddfa9fb2ae67672443de031edf7947bc733bcdc5f8935578deccb7f126
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,055,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,055,576 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb623…4203backed No | 10c | 146,341$14,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,100.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 13c | 30,000$3,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,835.36 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x137d…8358backed No | 0c | 20,117$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4966…81debacked No | 1c | 16,361$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.29 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc740…217ebacked No | 1c | 15,084$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed No | 1c | 14,529$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aff…7035backed No | 4c | 12,933$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.86 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 2c | 12,111$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.11 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 11,374$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…f78fbacked No | 0c | 11,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 17c | 8,554$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.12 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 8,491$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.73 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 14c | 7,748$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.67 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617f…4336backed No | 1c | 7,455$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c24…7d59backed No | 1c | 6,144$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 5,825$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 5,766$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.34 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce6…311ebacked No | 3c | 5,400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…4434backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked No | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 4,876$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed No | 2c | 4,776$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 15c | 4,603$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.66 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1317…8aecbacked Yes | 61c | 4,127$2,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6a…be7ebacked Yes | 69c | 3,553$2,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.28 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 79c | 3,405$2,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff2…9070backed No | 1c | 3,081$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 3,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c9…fa12backed No | 0c | 2,872$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked No | 0c | 2,750$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…b166backed No | 4c | 2,500$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 1c | 2,398$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…54a5backed Yes | 74c | 2,246$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…42e8backed No | 9c | 2,108$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…de6bbacked No | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…c80fbacked No | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…a127backed No | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Yes | 80c | 1,971$1,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.95 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 1,954$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.85 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…22ddbacked No | 1c | 1,818$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…3e48backed No | 2c | 1,712$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…d2e8backed No | 1c | 1,618$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eeb…bd84backed Yes | 73c | 1,565$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked No | 29c | 1,535$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.66 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 2c | 1,429$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…9891backed No | 11c | 1,409$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.79 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c55…9e26backed No | 50c | 1,320$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.41 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8b…f690backed No | 1c | 1,244$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,211$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…35a7backed No | 3c | 1,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…54fdbacked No | 25c | 1,189$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.03 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0f…6e2ebacked Yes | 67c | 1,183$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…ffc3backed Yes | 67c | 1,159$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 32c | 1,150$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 32c | 1,150$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked No | 1c | 1,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed No | 2c | 1,104$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf688…ac81backed Yes | 49c | 1,067$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a9…5976backed No | 3c | 1,011$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked No | 4c | 1,007$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 12c | 1,000$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.35 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53a5…59a4backed No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…b3fdbacked No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -62%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…9cc2backed No | 1c | 995.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab2…e819backed No | 3c | 940.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…5503backed No | 1c | 939.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 8c | 900.15$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24c…8f5bbacked No | 16c | 848$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked No | 2c | 838.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0b…0f27backed No | 36c | 832.07$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 9c | 818.69$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98bf…6945backed No | 2c | 800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…2de2backed Yes | 78c | 791.05$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 24c | 787.75$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…d9e8backed Yes | 46c | 765.39$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.65 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…d18fbacked No | 2c | 760.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 34c | 753.16$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe3…c1eebacked Yes | 78c | 709.39$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.39 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed No | 4c | 700$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc150…e85fbacked Yes | 72c | 683.42$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…c213backed Yes | 62c | 680$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e4…6a0ebacked No | 31c | 641.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8f…c78dbacked Yes | 79c | 606.56$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…c772backed No | 17c | 605.03$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3436…6e37backed No | 10c | 604.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…0206backed Yes | 61c | 600$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…a1debacked No | 11c | 600$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 27c | 591.43$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.86 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc6…000abacked No | 2c | 588.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 8c | 586.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f3…6517backed Yes | 50c | 551.5$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…951dbacked No | 3c | 540.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b69…66b0backed No | 11c | 533$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a66…7bd1backed Yes | 66c | 515.52$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec70…e529backed No | 16c | 502.33$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…cd75backed Yes | 50c | 502.09$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65dd…4664backed No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fa…cecfbacked No | 15c | 492.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed No | 14c | 469.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?this page
- No token launch by March 31No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on February 26?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 10?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 11?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 12?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 13?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 16?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 17?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 19?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 1?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 24?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 2?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 31?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 3?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 4?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 6?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 7?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 8?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.