Token Launches · resolved market
Will Opinion launch a token on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88f75f878d334887657a4000393707f71f2b0dc595746abae296fcdc06695765
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbed…bbb9backed No | 59c | 15,010$8,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,129.32 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…ce80backed Yes | 41c | 14,673$6,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,015.83 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…9434backed Yes | 33c | 400.92$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.04 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c6…910ebacked Yes | 45c | 277.45$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.94 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 54c | 250.01$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.01 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Yes | 24c | 146.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ce…ea8dbacked Yes | 41c | 121.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…5f4cbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e5…9b4cbacked Yes | 41c | 51.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf0…fd08backed No | 56c | 26.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 31?this page
- No token launch by March 31No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on February 26?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 10?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 11?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 12?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 13?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 16?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 17?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 19?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 1?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 24?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 2?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 3?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 4?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?Yes won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 6?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 7?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 8?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.