Token Launches · resolved market
Will Opinion launch a token on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8c2f1f512318070087f24361a13b52b5572e09618a47f6882a8821184174dc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,882 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 14,698$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe5…97c3backed Yes | 1c | 13,452$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…da0cbacked Yes | 0c | 9,773$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…35a7backed Yes | 0c | 5,422$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,994$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…b6f4backed Yes | 5c | 2,717$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.37 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 2,308$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 3c | 1,912$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,890$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…51eebacked Yes | 4c | 1,628$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cab…4c13backed Yes | 1c | 1,578$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9181…6800backed Yes | 1c | 1,405$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,335$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 11c | 1,304$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…1f7bbacked Yes | 5c | 999.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c9…9205backed Yes | 2c | 886.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 2c | 800.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…5c93backed Yes | 6c | 799.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f4…0f6ebacked Yes | 27c | 745.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711f…f51bbacked Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf688…ac81backed Yes | 21c | 431.19$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c78…13edbacked Yes | 15c | 343.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…d58cbacked Yes | 7c | 340.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa809…20b2backed Yes | 3c | 329.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 3c | 324.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bda…7258backed Yes | 4c | 308.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2937…ad07backed Yes | 19c | 258.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a14…045cbacked Yes | 9c | 256$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked Yes | 15c | 249.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x410f…09afbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6c…6f6bbacked Yes | 21c | 143.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 143.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2b…6db1backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…1140backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed No | 67c | 100.84$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce63…118bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 465 | 20.4%95 W · 370 L | -68.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -60%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7282…2d77backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b63…aa97backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf4…2e25backed Yes | 12c | 96.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 73.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x251d…01eebacked Yes | 42c | 67.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked Yes | 45c | 43.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x660e…76ccbacked No | 55c | 27.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 4?this page
- No token launch by March 31No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on February 26?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 10?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 11?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 12?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 13?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 16?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 17?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 19?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 1?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 24?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 2?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 31?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 3?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?Yes won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 6?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 7?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 8?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.