Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on January 17, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bd478d95753504daeb190dc933e6c05e07732e837d2b80c8d25f88e48b2f0cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $509,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $424,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $509,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes | 1c | 23,244$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.44 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…a900backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7758…7125backed Yes | 1c | 10,715$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 6c | 9,399$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.99 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…98ebbacked Yes | 3c | 8,328$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.1 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 5c | 7,008$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.87 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdcf…bbbcbacked Yes | 7c | 6,800$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 8c | 5,938$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.35 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 5,742$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.41 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 5,490$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.84 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…32f9backed Yes | 2c | 5,486$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 4,938$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.53 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc403…eb62backed Yes | 4c | 4,593$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 8c | 4,385$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.19 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 4,384$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.84 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 7c | 4,247$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.04 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 4,068$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.61 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed Yes | 6c | 4,000$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…0dafbacked Yes | 3c | 3,865$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 4c | 3,571$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.63 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 3,437$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.37 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 3c | 3,300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 2,913$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.54 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 2,818$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.16 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 4c | 2,450$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 2,322$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.38 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes | 8c | 2,277$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 1c | 2,270$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9824…959fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,212$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,157$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.86 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c3…cceebacked Yes | 10c | 2,101$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1837…8da6backed Yes | 5c | 2,051$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3039…8a62backed Yes | 7c | 2,030$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.48 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…bed0backed Yes | 2c | 2,015$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…a60ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +257.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…0007backed Yes | 15c | 1,967$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…e57fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,954$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d7…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,871$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d82…312fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,800$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225f…fc34backed Yes | 6c | 1,769$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…0574backed Yes | 4c | 1,746$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a10…ba54backed Yes | 7c | 1,708$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.19 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc1…d84dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,703$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…ab3fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,700$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92bc…7013backed Yes | 6c | 1,666$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 2c | 1,665$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…d776backed Yes | 15c | 1,648$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 9c | 1,616$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.1 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…650dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,608$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c17…6a7ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,600$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…d071backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +154%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 4c | 1,579$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…cd4fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,424$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a3…5f96backed Yes | 4c | 1,422$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…d019backed Yes | 9c | 1,410$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…aff7backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,389$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…4302backed Yes | 9c | 1,319$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb6…76e0backed Yes | 8c | 1,222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9121backed Yes | 8c | 1,187$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a7…615ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,180$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,163$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 1,160$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 9c | 1,149$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.31 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 9c | 1,126$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 9c | 1,121$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…9309backed Yes | 10c | 1,104$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b5…280cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,085$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +1,025.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 11c | 1,081$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.97 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae12…4271backed Yes | 8c | 1,080$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…8ff1backed Yes | 6c | 1,044$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377a…0620backed Yes | 10c | 1,023$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…94aabacked Yes | 10c | 1,008$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 9c | 999.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.25 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 8c | 999.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…eef5backed Yes | 5c | 999.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked Yes | 10c | 971.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…09d0backed Yes | 7c | 968$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 935.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3b…a86cbacked Yes | 3c | 925.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e7…a5debacked Yes | 3c | 904.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…f1adbacked Yes | 1c | 899.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 7c | 894.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 131 | 6.1%8 W · 123 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfe…fb24backed Yes | 8c | 878.41$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…2ffabacked Yes | 1c | 866.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19dd…8f24backed Yes | 12c | 844.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 5c | 800$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd4…b665backed Yes | 7c | 798.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658f…79ffbacked Yes | 8c | 790$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…9439backed Yes | 6c | 787.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 3c | 778.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 8c | 719.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a37…1f82backed Yes | 4c | 711.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…6984backed Yes | 7c | 693.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x07e2…8636backed Yes | 4c | 640$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 17, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.