Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on January 21, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39504cbc120a8092f5df3d0ba612976a0d97a7aa2b699e73fae49010cbc31f1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,260,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $981,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,260,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e67…ac8bbacked Yes | 0c | 175,974$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes | 1c | 96,733$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.13 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 1c | 71,057$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.57 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 0c | 23,324$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa652…ff5abacked Yes | 0c | 23,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 1c | 19,896$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.83 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes | 1c | 17,854$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…98ebbacked Yes | 1c | 16,651$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.88 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…8ce5backed Yes | 0c | 15,530$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 1c | 14,769$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.43 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab06…689bbacked Yes | 2c | 12,274$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8c…97d1backed Yes | 1c | 10,725$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,698$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 2c | 10,640$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.19 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,485$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.64 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea98…8626backed Yes | 1c | 10,335$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x426d…6669backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…aa35backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…aeb9backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…6283backed Yes | 1c | 9,900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 9,817$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.43 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 9,125$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d79…6e71backed Yes | 1c | 7,982$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x650a…e30fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,710$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 7,424$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.35 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 7,410$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.87 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 1c | 6,385$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…e491backed Yes | 2c | 6,159$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes | 1c | 5,872$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…f1adbacked Yes | 1c | 5,274$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 3c | 5,270$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 2c | 5,099$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfb…999abacked Yes | 2c | 5,082$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.17 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe194…cd47backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…4875backed Yes | 3c | 4,782$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…26aebacked Yes | 2c | 4,746$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 4,537$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…6d70backed Yes | 1c | 4,535$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5495…d542backed Yes | 1c | 4,204$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 1c | 4,080$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9684…ea58backed Yes | 1c | 3,942$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 3c | 3,925$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9286…a77dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,618$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 1c | 3,616$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e51…141dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,569$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c8…698abacked Yes | 1c | 3,437$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4637…fd78backed Yes | 1c | 3,428$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e6…8197backed Yes | 1c | 3,404$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 3,352$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…507bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbce…a28bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,314$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3132…cae8backed Yes | 1c | 3,221$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b00…7765backed Yes | 1c | 3,125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eee…0a68backed Yes | 2c | 3,117$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -65%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a10…ba54backed Yes | 2c | 3,073$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd973…643fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 1c | 2,970$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 2,904$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 2,829$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…c75ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,815$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e1…e468backed Yes | 2c | 2,778$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bb…003cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,762$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524f…9dcebacked Yes | 2c | 2,703$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,694$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 2,566$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 2c | 2,549$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…54c8backed Yes | 1c | 2,520$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,438$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c2…186ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,380$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d1…0995backed Yes | 1c | 2,096$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a1…cba7backed Yes | 1c | 2,069$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,022$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…d7c8backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e16…6e1fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,882$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb0…f77dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,818$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed8…6e31backed Yes | 1c | 1,818$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…9439backed Yes | 3c | 1,806$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…1082backed Yes | 1c | 1,769$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 1c | 1,733$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes | 1c | 1,680$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5670…bd63backed Yes | 1c | 1,654$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked Yes | 1c | 1,596$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d7…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,577$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c1…e407backed Yes | 1c | 1,524$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…7ba1backed Yes | 2c | 1,481$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffb6…e64bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,462$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 2c | 1,454$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3870…0424backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11bd…caa7backed Yes | 1c | 1,337$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a32…2fcdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,285$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Yes | 2c | 1,261$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 1c | 1,261$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…8119backed Yes | 2c | 1,253$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,252$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 21, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.