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Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,729,141
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$915,095

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,729,141 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 402 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes3c91,743$2,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,515.3440%0 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes4c50,000$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75013823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes2c28,770$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.185431.5%17 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9244…f154backed Yes2c28,288$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.92540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-44.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes5c27,665$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.6735631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1287…e491backed Yes4c26,430$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.664717%8 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes4c25,000$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89035347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes3c23,787$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.879250%46 W · 46 L+10.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+63.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes3c22,537$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.5537740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8102…d50abacked Yes2c22,266$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.46180%0 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0540…98ebbacked Yes3c22,160$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.375610.7%6 W · 50 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-65%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes3c20,000$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.093351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes3c19,973$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.21515.9%3 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-81.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9c3…a742backed Yes6c19,050$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105358.6%3 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes3c18,731$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.7340433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c17,785$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.067135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67d6…245ebacked Yes2c17,577$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.277929.1%23 W · 56 L+0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc921…7dd6backed Yes6c17,241$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-89.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes1c16,273$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4917111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a97…c1f9backed Yes4c15,242$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.43825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-48.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c14,842$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.591,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c14,769$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.222476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…f440backed Yes3c14,655$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.03234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes1c14,350$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4343212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c7…191abacked Yes2c14,000$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.397520%15 W · 60 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes0c13,400$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.89414.9%14 W · 80 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ddd…9640backed Yes5c13,393$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.181323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes2c13,385$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.341430.7%1 W · 142 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-92.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes3c13,266$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.9684.4%3 W · 65 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-87.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes2c12,791$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.827722.1%17 W · 60 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes4c11,766$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.25280%0 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcca2…4b79backed Yes3c10,904$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.55147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-79.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb710…6639backed Yes2c10,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1603528.6%10 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-46.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x978a…804fbacked Yes4c9,415$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.89150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c8,405$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.734625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c8,348$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.314195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes4c8,009$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.87867%6 W · 80 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes2c8,000$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5320%0 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3680…a456backed Yes3c7,615$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.841910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick6cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes3c7,537$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.591442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes1c7,500$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.457014.3%10 W · 60 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-45%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes3c7,499$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.84965.2%5 W · 91 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22b4…4412backed Yes3c7,388$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.11020%2 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-43.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75c7…aaaebacked Yes4c7,240$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes3c7,201$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.6825518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes3c6,965$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.06720%0 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes3c6,955$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.441477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60bb…d33fbacked Yes3c6,639$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae4…bdfebacked Yes1c6,559$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.33229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-63.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes3c6,533$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.0412525.6%32 W · 93 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab06…689bbacked Yes2c6,368$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.922814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ebc…a21ebacked Yes5c6,315$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001631.3%5 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick17cpaid+23.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56e7…886ebacked Yes4c6,098$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.8660%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf30b…1a5cbacked Yes7c5,882$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes3c5,830$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.224656.5%26 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes3c5,612$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.62913.8%4 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+163.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8150…d03fbacked Yes5c5,567$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2521136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x326d…a208backed Yes4c5,446$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c5,278$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.741995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes3c5,167$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.98836%5 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20fb…e5fabacked Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc157…728cbacked Yes1c4,943$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.438427.4%23 W · 61 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-57.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1307…bd75backed Yes3c4,742$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-66.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae12…4271backed Yes2c4,714$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.732114.3%3 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-75.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b1…b4adbacked Yes4c4,510$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-91.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb31…e5afbacked Yes3c4,482$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.85425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-48.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes3c4,311$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.43694.3%3 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes2c4,200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2344224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes2c4,150$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9111730.8%36 W · 81 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6509…ab24backed Yes4c4,104$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+201.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes3c4,001$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9402.5%1 W · 39 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick11cpaid-83.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1743…adffbacked Yes4c3,825$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05da…962cbacked Yes3c3,785$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes3c3,699$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.37413.5%10 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-54.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bea…7d80backed Yes3c3,641$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.334022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-48.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9038…4900backed Yes4c3,607$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…f793backed Yes4c3,600$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72fa…5e4ebacked Yes1c3,592$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.18333%1 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-92.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d57…e0ffbacked Yes2c3,582$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.926028.3%17 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63d5…c97dbacked Yes3c3,525$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-74.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes3c3,412$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.89736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a3b…3149backed Yes2c3,352$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.52814.3%4 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick7cpaid-60.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes4c3,315$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.868515.3%13 W · 72 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x81e9…ea4cbacked Yes6c3,311$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a81…420fbacked Yes4c3,263$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.5362.8%1 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-77.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37be…d876backed Yes4c3,244$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.82917.2%5 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes3c3,235$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101647.8%5 W · 59 L-0.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf55c…0afebacked Yes3c3,229$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-41.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes3c3,190$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1069942.4%42 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0e6…8197backed Yes4c3,157$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1405014%7 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-42%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3407…ba74backed Yes2c3,148$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60303.3%1 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid+270.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bcf…327ebacked Yes4c3,146$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.97425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x914a…4419backed Yes5c3,130$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x535f…a527backed Yes2c3,075$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x304d…cb05backed Yes3c3,010$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9950%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes2c3,000$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7114520.7%30 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes4c3,000$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1323917.9%7 W · 32 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-52%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes0c2,985$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.236232.3%20 W · 42 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7106…d3adbacked Yes2c2,982$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651010%1 W · 9 L-4.5wins-0.45per pick55cpaid-87.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes2c2,941$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.998224.4%20 W · 62 L+8.3wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+64%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.