Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05f907b44dab22edd2f7596448b888dafd2ad3124560855c6107bfd5364d797f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,729,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $915,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,729,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 402 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes | 3c | 91,743$2,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,515.3 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 4c | 50,000$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 2c | 28,770$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.18 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…f154backed Yes | 2c | 28,288$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 5c | 27,665$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.67 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…e491backed Yes | 4c | 26,430$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.66 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 4c | 25,000$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 3c | 23,787$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.87 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 3c | 22,537$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.55 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8102…d50abacked Yes | 2c | 22,266$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.46 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…98ebbacked Yes | 3c | 22,160$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.37 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 3c | 20,000$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.09 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 3c | 19,973$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.21 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c3…a742backed Yes | 6c | 19,050$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 3c | 18,731$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.73 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 17,785$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.06 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 2c | 17,577$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.27 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…7dd6backed Yes | 6c | 17,241$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 16,273$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.49 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Yes | 4c | 15,242$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 14,842$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.59 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 14,769$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.22 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…f440backed Yes | 3c | 14,655$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.03 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 14,350$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 2c | 14,000$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.39 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 0c | 13,400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddd…9640backed Yes | 5c | 13,393$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 13,385$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.34 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes | 3c | 13,266$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.9 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 2c | 12,791$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.82 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 4c | 11,766$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.25 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…4b79backed Yes | 3c | 10,904$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.55 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb710…6639backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x978a…804fbacked Yes | 4c | 9,415$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.89 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 8,405$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.73 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 8,348$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.31 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes | 4c | 8,009$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.87 | 86 | 7%6 W · 80 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 2c | 8,000$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…a456backed Yes | 3c | 7,615$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.84 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 7,537$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.59 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 1c | 7,500$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.45 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 3c | 7,499$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.84 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b4…4412backed Yes | 3c | 7,388$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…aaaebacked Yes | 4c | 7,240$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 3c | 7,201$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.68 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 3c | 6,965$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.06 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 6,955$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.44 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60bb…d33fbacked Yes | 3c | 6,639$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…bdfebacked Yes | 1c | 6,559$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.33 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 3c | 6,533$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.04 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab06…689bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,368$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.92 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebc…a21ebacked Yes | 5c | 6,315$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…886ebacked Yes | 4c | 6,098$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.86 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30b…1a5cbacked Yes | 7c | 5,882$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 3c | 5,830$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.22 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes | 3c | 5,612$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.6 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +163.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8150…d03fbacked Yes | 5c | 5,567$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…a208backed Yes | 4c | 5,446$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 5,278$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.74 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 5,167$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.98 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,943$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1307…bd75backed Yes | 3c | 4,742$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae12…4271backed Yes | 2c | 4,714$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.73 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…b4adbacked Yes | 4c | 4,510$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb31…e5afbacked Yes | 3c | 4,482$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 4,311$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.43 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 2c | 4,200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes | 2c | 4,150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6509…ab24backed Yes | 4c | 4,104$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +201.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,001$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.9 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1743…adffbacked Yes | 4c | 3,825$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05da…962cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,785$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 3c | 3,699$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.3 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…7d80backed Yes | 3c | 3,641$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.33 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9038…4900backed Yes | 4c | 3,607$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…f793backed Yes | 4c | 3,600$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…5e4ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,592$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…e0ffbacked Yes | 2c | 3,582$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d5…c97dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,525$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 3c | 3,412$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…3149backed Yes | 2c | 3,352$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 4c | 3,315$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.86 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…ea4cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,311$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a81…420fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,263$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…d876backed Yes | 4c | 3,244$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.8 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes | 3c | 3,235$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55c…0afebacked Yes | 3c | 3,229$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,190$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e6…8197backed Yes | 4c | 3,157$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…ba74backed Yes | 2c | 3,148$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcf…327ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,146$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…4419backed Yes | 5c | 3,130$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…a527backed Yes | 2c | 3,075$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304d…cb05backed Yes | 3c | 3,010$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 0c | 2,985$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…d3adbacked Yes | 2c | 2,982$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.5wins | -0.45per pick | 55cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 2c | 2,941$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +64%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.