TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa9c3…a742

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
95
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Boxing, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Boxing at 53 out of 100; worst Premier League at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST4827.1%13 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 48 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bulls vs. Heatbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+105%+$62.98
Bucks vs. Celticsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Kings vs. Celticsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Kings vs. 76ersbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Pelicans vs. Thunderbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Bucks vs. 76ersbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Kings vs. Knicksbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Trail Blazers vs. Celticsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Grizzlies vs. Rocketsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Nets vs. Clippersbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Pelicans vs. Spursbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+456%+$296.4
Kings vs. Pistonsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Heat vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Knicks vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+669.2%+$133.85
Celtics vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Kings vs. Cavaliersbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Spurs vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Bulls vs. Timberwolvesbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+316.7%+$158.33
Hornets vs. Magicbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+212.5%+$42.5
Pacers vs. Celticsbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Pacers vs. 76ersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Mavericks vs. Knicksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+257.1%+$128.57
Jazz vs. Spursbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Pelicans vs. Rocketsbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$78
Showing 25 of 48 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT358.6%3 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$245
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+455.6%+$227.78
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+270.4%+$118.96
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$48
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$61
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$91
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$112
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$27
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$25
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$30
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$35
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$85
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$70.45
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$80
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$30
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$30
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$89
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$85
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$80
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$25
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$2,092Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$2,092
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,160Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,160
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,105Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$1,105
Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+412.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoorbacked Demoor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+412.8%+$103.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+104.1%+$20.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rams vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rangers vs. Capitalsbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.