TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pacers vs. Thunder

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pacersof Pacers, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,401,958
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,519,367

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,401,958 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 695 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb8e6…d504backed Pacers12c250,000$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220,00021057.1%120 W · 90 L+20.3wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Pacers11c176,287$19,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156,895.5651844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44d4…1970backed Pacers12c110,685$13,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97,402.9716752.1%87 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Thunder42c91,529$38,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,087.625,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07c…11a0backed Pacers12c63,083$7,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,513.3318140.3%73 W · 108 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e69…858dbacked Pacers11c54,545$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,545.051942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Pacers11c38,192$4,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,990.6827424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Pacers10c37,462$3,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,617.6347028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Pacers54c31,474$16,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,545.5416848.2%81 W · 87 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Pacers13c30,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,10051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Pacers11c30,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,799.9646928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder59c29,006$17,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,088.554,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Pacers13c28,131$3,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,473.9748352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Thunder49c24,569$12,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,090.6314751%75 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Pacers12c23,495$2,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,675.61,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Thunder39c22,169$8,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,606.311,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Thunder42c21,364$8,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,870.5459646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Pacers12c20,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,599.9940446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Pacers38c19,319$7,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,070.427251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3873…c068backed Thunder74c13,720$10,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,136.3414537.9%55 W · 90 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5913…a09ebacked Thunder49c13,684$6,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,649.431957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Pacers68c12,856$8,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,063.391,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Pacers23c12,581$2,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,702.0938046.6%177 W · 203 L-1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Pacers12c12,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,5602,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Thunder38c11,968$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50022458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Thunder67c11,922$8,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,012.7373649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Thunder14c11,001$1,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,577.71,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Pacers11c10,909$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,709.0272450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Thunder0c10,835$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.88820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Pacers74c10,648$7,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,794.389747.4%46 W · 51 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa392…1415backed Pacers24c10,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,60014245.1%64 W · 78 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Pacers13c10,000$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,75021139.8%84 W · 127 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Thunder12c10,000$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.366540%26 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder67c9,746$6,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,519.362,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x323b…6ed9backed Thunder79c9,718$7,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,684.382958.6%17 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Pacers10c9,500$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,549.9478445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Pacers37c9,435$3,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,907.0946940.3%189 W · 280 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddd…39eebacked Thunder74c9,421$6,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,959.9222542.2%95 W · 130 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Pacers12c9,301$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,184.621,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Pacers12c9,167$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,066.679838.8%38 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Pacers11c8,706$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,705.676746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Pacers29c8,558$2,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,054.8785344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Pacers77c7,311$5,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,664.0948957.5%281 W · 208 L+2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Thunder69c7,300$5,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,003.991,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Pacers12c7,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,16032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Pacers12c6,891$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,091.5761336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Pacers70c6,565$4,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,997.7939744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dbc…0f5cbacked Thunder1c6,444$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463710.8%4 W · 33 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6683…de6bbacked Thunder57c6,367$3,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,611.2425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-66.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9030…4a23backed Thunder75c6,140$4,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,591.867862.8%49 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Pacers69c6,025$4,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,863.3636247.2%171 W · 191 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc064…7e38backed Thunder77c6,000$4,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,590728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.38per pick67cpaid-60.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Thunder4c5,774$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.4335326.6%94 W · 259 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd78d…60bebacked Thunder2c5,679$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2825016.8%42 W · 208 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Thunder14c5,493$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.2514533.1%48 W · 97 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Pacers42c5,471$2,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,147.4635747.1%168 W · 189 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Pacers42c5,338$2,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,091.1223747.7%113 W · 124 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38fe…e150backed Thunder60c5,243$3,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,158.42352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0748…a31ebacked Pacers19c5,188$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,188.041145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Pacers11c5,050$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,494.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Pacers11c5,021$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,468.7835450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Thunder56c5,003$2,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,801.5922457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Pacers12c5,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,400.0277348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed Pacers12c5,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,40018151.4%93 W · 88 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Pacers12c5,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,40095641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Thunder2c4,761$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9829810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec9a…ad34backed Pacers22c4,553$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,552.976432.8%21 W · 43 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x716d…4206backed Thunder67c4,500$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001827.8%5 W · 13 L-4.4wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-28.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbede…fd53backed Pacers12c4,463$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,927.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x816b…d69dbacked Thunder35c4,326$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,517.7424752.6%130 W · 117 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Pacers12c4,167$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,666.6746632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked Pacers10c4,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,599.9840035.5%142 W · 258 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7671…7244backed Thunder75c3,912$2,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,920.561361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb470…ba61backed Pacers73c3,646$2,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.264440.9%18 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Pacers39c3,607$1,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,194.2953043.8%232 W · 298 L-25.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Pacers20c3,559$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,858.752,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3303…b5e3backed Thunder57c3,530$2,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,019.32540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid+44.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ca…9ef8backed Thunder64c3,470$2,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,215.1228554.7%156 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaa98…b8f7backed Pacers27c3,441$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,522.742653.8%14 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+54.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Pacers12c3,333$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,933.3348938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Thunder72c3,310$2,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.4347856.5%270 W · 208 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Pacers12c3,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,64040041.5%166 W · 234 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec9…8d0bbacked Thunder57c3,000$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7102152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa732…506ebacked Pacers11c2,960$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,634.397143.7%31 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked Thunder58c2,925$1,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,707.5911251.8%58 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pacers51c2,889$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408.85,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7c9…0f2bbacked Pacers28c2,800$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,02013543.7%59 W · 76 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfed…c501backed Thunder60c2,680$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.81944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick63cpaid-36%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Pacers71c2,638$1,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.713,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf312…eee8backed Pacers39c2,538$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,548.462842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Pacers12c2,500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20085147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f6d…4ad5backed Pacers11c2,500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2257943%34 W · 45 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+26.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb364…f1e3backed Pacers13c2,500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,174.937060%42 W · 28 L+8.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+22.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x799c…bcefbacked Thunder73c2,491$1,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,82527163.5%172 W · 99 L+0.9wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Pacers53c2,433$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.327144.3%120 W · 151 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Thunder12c2,420$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30065339.5%258 W · 395 L-24.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3963…3c01backed Pacers45c2,395$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,317.161952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Pacers12c2,270$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,993.241,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a55…fd0dbacked Pacers15c2,205$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,880.745742.1%24 W · 33 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab85…81e6backed Pacers12c2,129$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,873.4514855.4%82 W · 66 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.