TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-15.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pacersof Thunder, Pacers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$240,587
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$242,201

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,587 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1117…3532backed Thunder53c56,876$30,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,132.941,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Pacers51c30,000$15,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,799.9940446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Thunder50c25,486$12,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,688.259347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Pacers51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,80051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5157…e842backed Pacers47c18,962$8,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,049.911060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Thunder49c15,820$7,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,751.871547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37e2…8863backed Pacers47c14,771$6,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,828.84666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+36.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder50c11,005$5,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,459.824,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Pacers50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Pacers50c10,000$5,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,981.0477348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6880…5efdbacked Thunder53c9,332$4,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9461942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Thunder41c9,115$3,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,768.9948448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Thunder16c8,509$1,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,334.9483039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Thunder49c8,163$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00033447.9%160 W · 174 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Thunder50c8,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Pacers51c7,647$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,747.069838.8%38 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pacers48c6,962$3,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,589.219,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Thunder50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Pacers47c4,606$2,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,441.316546.2%30 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Pacers50c4,545$2,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,272.51,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Pacers49c4,363$2,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2252,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Pacers49c4,257$2,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,150.321,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Pacers47c4,255$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255.3249246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Thunder49c4,081$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.691,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Thunder49c4,024$1,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,971.7944352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Thunder51c3,989$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,024.662,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Pacers50c3,842$1,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,932.962,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77fe…551dbacked Pacers47c3,834$1,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,032.1924450%122 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder49c3,313$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,623.454,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Thunder11c3,219$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.942,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Thunder52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.948054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Pacers47c2,651$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,405.2736351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Thunder50c2,523$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.6943148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eca…6a15backed Pacers47c2,500$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3259742.3%41 W · 56 L-10.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Thunder49c2,449$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20041649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59e7…1633backed Pacers48c2,411$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Pacers51c1,949$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.471,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Thunder51c1,849$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.312,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd56d…bd7dbacked Thunder49c1,800$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8828647.7%41 W · 45 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Pacers51c1,760$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.392,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf20f…3b33backed Pacers47c1,743$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.5518343.7%80 W · 103 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Pacers50c1,520$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76026949.1%132 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Pacers51c1,494$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.1743247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa62d…92e0backed Pacers51c1,373$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.5510049%49 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder50c1,089$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.743,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Thunder50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Pacers49c999.51$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.6595641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3873…c068backed Thunder56c889.99$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.414537.9%55 W · 90 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Pacers47c872.75$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.5642648.1%205 W · 221 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Thunder29c857.09$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.8225840.7%105 W · 153 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a10…8b30backed Thunder49c700$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.2450239%196 W · 306 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Pacers72c669$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.0732346.4%150 W · 173 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Pacers44c657.22$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.0437755.2%208 W · 169 L+23.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Pacers70c637.58$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.1435942.1%151 W · 208 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Thunder53c566.82$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.4140648%195 W · 211 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe098…8ee2backed Thunder53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020754.1%112 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Thunder54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27073649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Pacers50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2504639.1%18 W · 28 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Thunder21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.566645.9%306 W · 360 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadd0…f83dbacked Thunder50c498$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+56%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1896…a736backed Thunder50c468$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.35per pick49cpaid-72.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Pacers50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed Thunder52c376.17$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.6111753%62 W · 55 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Pacers51c362$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3835747.1%168 W · 189 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Thunder35c320.68$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.963,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Thunder51c313.73$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16025951.4%133 W · 126 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…a569backed Thunder53c301.89$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16023847.1%112 W · 126 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d4b…a250backed Thunder50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15034447.4%163 W · 181 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Thunder50c299.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.8947349%232 W · 241 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Thunder51c294$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9420651%105 W · 101 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04c0…0927backed Pacers47c265.96$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.9618852.7%99 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Thunder49c257.25$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.051,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Pacers48c250$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13095548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f9…f78ebacked Pacers50c229.81$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.8113339.1%52 W · 81 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd550…9228backed Pacers47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.771741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Pacers48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3312650%63 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Thunder49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10036649.5%181 W · 185 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Pacers49c204.08$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.931,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Thunder13c203.62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.392,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Pacers50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10015052.7%79 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc064…7e38backed Thunder50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.38per pick67cpaid-60.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Pacers76c194.47$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3421642.1%91 W · 125 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Pacers80c193.87$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7767921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8a0…35b6backed Pacers51c189.27$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.7415348.4%74 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f6…2e01backed Thunder50c158.54$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0116749.1%82 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Pacers75c153.6$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6527144.3%120 W · 151 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Thunder51c152$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2942143.7%184 W · 237 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Thunder51c149.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8766143.4%287 W · 374 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Thunder54c148.94$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8081845.7%374 W · 444 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x522b…5160backed Thunder18c125.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.59911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.32per pick43cpaid-75.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x5e57…2bf6backed Pacers50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6012549.6%62 W · 63 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Thunder51c117.64$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6076250.4%384 W · 378 L+3.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Thunder51c117.64$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec66…e58fbacked Thunder52c114.32$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6024250.8%123 W · 119 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Thunder52c110$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.282440.4%333 W · 491 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Thunder48c105$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.434855.2%192 W · 156 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Pacers44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5680744.1%356 W · 451 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb98e…8823backed Pacers49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5118456%103 W · 81 L+16.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Pacers49c99.97$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.995848.3%28 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Pacers51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0466153.3%352 W · 309 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.