TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. 76ers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
76ersof Bucks, 76ers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,296,776
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,373,363

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,296,776 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 849 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf031…c80cbacked Bucks23c405,034$93,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93,157.856841.2%28 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed 76ers77c322,321$248,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,139.665658.9%33 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e6…d504backed Bucks23c311,720$72,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,945.6121057.1%120 W · 90 L+20.3wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Bucks21c211,660$44,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,992.4751844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Bucks20c80,000$16,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,399.927424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb915…8da5backed 76ers79c76,288$60,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,020.4610459.6%62 W · 42 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed 76ers76c67,080$51,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,944.41,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Bucks22c66,312$14,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,588.586352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed 76ers77c58,000$44,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,590.0823257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed 76ers80c50,459$40,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,154.6210952.3%57 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Bucks29c50,134$14,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,427.779043.3%39 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked 76ers78c45,408$35,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,132.294,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked 76ers77c38,961$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,961.0420758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 76ers78c37,182$28,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,308.899,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03a9…37babacked Bucks21c35,310$7,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,583.1310547.6%50 W · 55 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed 76ers78c34,868$27,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,806.654,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ea…bb01backed Bucks23c32,000$7,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,3605648.2%27 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked 76ers76c30,108$22,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,225.962,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed 76ers79c26,950$21,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,659.4959646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Bucks0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed 76ers78c23,492$18,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,062.4655346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Bucks23c22,222$5,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,111.0520551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked 76ers77c21,025$16,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,797.262,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed 76ers79c20,065$15,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,134.243,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Bucks23c20,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,60019751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed 76ers77c20,000$15,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,599.9823245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Bucks1c19,007$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.431,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked 76ers78c18,628$14,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,026.861,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Bucks22c17,775$3,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,910.5787144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed 76ers78c17,579$13,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,853.232,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed 76ers78c16,538$12,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,672.1214663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 76ers78c16,436$12,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,657.065,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked 76ers77c15,995$12,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,678.7615349%75 W · 78 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Bucks22c15,974$3,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,514.3528742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Bucks23c15,556$3,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,577.8815247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked 76ers77c15,555$11,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,577.6514243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed 76ers77c15,087$11,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,470.0192753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04d2…4c2cbacked 76ers77c15,044$11,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,460.1617454%94 W · 80 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed 76ers77c15,000$11,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,45018151.4%93 W · 88 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed 76ers77c15,000$11,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,45019048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae74…6aefbacked 76ers77c14,400$11,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3123100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+67.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed 76ers78c13,999$10,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,10413063.8%83 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked 76ers73c13,515$9,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,605.4948956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked 76ers77c13,208$10,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,018.5423052.6%121 W · 109 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x096f…8c80backed 76ers77c12,987$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,987.01580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+40.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed 76ers77c12,347$9,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,839.8130845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3644…6fdfbacked 76ers77c12,045$9,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,770.261668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked 76ers79c11,827$9,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,520.2528554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed 76ers77c10,861$8,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,455.22,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked 76ers77c10,759$8,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,474.5748352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed 76ers78c10,704$8,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,400.2519645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked 76ers74c10,035$7,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,593.3477348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked 76ers78c10,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed 76ers79c10,000$7,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10017646%81 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed 76ers79c10,000$7,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10046145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Bucks21c10,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed 76ers78c9,635$7,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,142.23,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked 76ers77c8,682$6,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,970.572450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcad4…c108backed 76ers78c8,659$6,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,904.916651.5%34 W · 32 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Bucks23c8,271$1,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,902.4459347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Bucks21c8,100$1,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,68215250.7%77 W · 75 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Bucks7c7,717$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.229938.4%38 W · 61 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Bucks21c7,619$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60048938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12fd…90c0backed Bucks23c7,600$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,748.0628439.8%113 W · 171 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked 76ers78c7,115$5,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,565.35655.4%31 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Bucks22c7,000$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,54032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bucks18c6,953$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,245.531,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d75…c09fbacked 76ers77c6,818$5,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,568.182334.8%8 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xbd2b…7f04backed 76ers77c6,457$4,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.38348.2%40 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c15…35aebacked 76ers76c6,454$4,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,54910236.3%37 W · 65 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c02…7fdcbacked 76ers80c6,251$5,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.251050%5 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Bucks22c5,800$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,27658449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Bucks21c5,766$1,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,210.861,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed 76ers79c5,376$4,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.9236950.1%185 W · 184 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed 76ers76c5,236$3,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,271.1789444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed 76ers76c5,000$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.9939349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Bucks24c5,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.9946928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Bucks22c4,997$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.391,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Bucks13c4,964$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.8350838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0588…8f18backed Bucks12c4,870$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5905129.4%15 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Bucks21c4,762$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x916a…b479backed Bucks15c4,655$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72070%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c42…da3cbacked 76ers79c4,600$3,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96614055.7%78 W · 62 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c28…7ba5backed Bucks21c4,600$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96613148.9%64 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e1…b37bbacked 76ers78c4,559$3,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.9916550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Bucks22c4,545$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked 76ers78c4,432$3,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.091,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed 76ers77c4,416$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.5847856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed 76ers77c4,338$3,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.7471547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Bucks23c4,257$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007536%27 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a43…565fbacked 76ers78c4,231$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.775945.8%27 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac53…6133backed Bucks22c4,130$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.610050%50 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f72…0841backed 76ers78c4,001$3,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.2810255.9%57 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ebf…82d5backed Bucks20c4,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8003551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbabe…f584backed 76ers80c4,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8001643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa827…1adbbacked Bucks22c4,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8802931%9 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc480…0caabacked 76ers78c4,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.9913249.2%65 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked 76ers77c3,870$2,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.335744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Bucks21c3,812$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.9661939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61a1…6657backed 76ers77c3,664$2,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.127758.8%163 W · 114 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.