NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. 76ers: O/U 218.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0622bb662e72d44c6140d8217285c71c2b74c5558de2293105b86a36ac39796d

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 28, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $23,908
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $23,671

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,908 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb8e6…d504backed Over	54c	8,260$4,460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,799.6	210	57.1%120 W · 90 L	+20.3wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	46c	5,379$2,482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,482.05	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	46c	3,470$1,596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,596.2	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Under	45c	2,741$1,233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,233.5	483	47.2%228 W · 255 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c51…60bcbacked Over	52c	2,100$1,092 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,008	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e31…9dcabacked Over	52c	2,100$1,092 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,008	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b1d…1e31backed Under	48c	2,100$1,008 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,008	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x926f…5626backed Under	48c	2,100$1,008 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,008	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-3.9wins	-0.32per pick	49cpaid	-66%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xbfb9…2396backed Over	52c	2,100$1,092 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,008	28	64.3%18 W · 10 L	+3.7wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7432…d7d5backed Under	48c	2,100$1,008 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,008	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+1.8wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fdf…2b11backed Under	48c	2,100$1,008 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,008	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xafe7…7e7fbacked Over	52c	2,100$1,092 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,008	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+3.2wins	+0.14per pick	51cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over	53c	658$349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$309.26	1,150	49.5%569 W · 581 L	-12.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over	53c	585.57$310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$275.22	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x203d…e00fbacked Under	47c	576$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.72	45	33.3%15 W · 30 L	-4.4wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-29%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	48c	518$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.59	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Under	45c	512.86$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.76	221	38%84 W · 137 L	-11.6wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Over	54c	475$256 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$218.55	909	57.6%524 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed Under	49c	408.27$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	111	59.5%66 W · 45 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Under	19c	248.84$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.34	127	37%47 W · 80 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	46c	140.87$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Under	46c	111.1$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.11	432	44%190 W · 242 L	-18.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	54c	111.1$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.11	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Under	47c	106$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.82	538	39.4%212 W · 326 L	-26.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Over	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	373	57.4%214 W · 159 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Over	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	373	52%194 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over	55c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.27	493	51.7%255 W · 238 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	74c	44.37$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.45	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4892…27bcbacked Over	53c	37.73$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.73	43	69.8%30 W · 13 L	+6.5wins	+0.15per pick	55cpaid	+34.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Over	54c	34.89$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.05	208	38%79 W · 129 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Under	46c	32.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	456	51.1%233 W · 223 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xcb34…a390backed Under	48c	30.55$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.67	60	38.3%23 W · 37 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Under	45c	27.13$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.21	376	52.4%197 W · 179 L	+12.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over	54c	26$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.96	712	45.8%326 W · 386 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under	47c	21.37$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.04	1,634	48.1%786 W · 848 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bucks vs. 76ers: O/U 218.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event