NBA · resolved market

Spread: 76ers (-9.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5543efbd1cdf52531e3d93dfed55de0f40b5582d4ec278d22b676cee733a7b2a

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: 76ersof 76ers, Bucks
Resolved: Jan 28, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $121,694
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $122,676

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,694 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x08c5…43edbacked Bucks	48c	35,225$17,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,000	443	52.4%232 W · 211 L	+10.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 76ers	52c	31,270$16,196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,074.17	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Bucks	47c	16,212$7,575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,574.51	545	39.6%216 W · 329 L	-28.2wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed 76ers	53c	15,205$8,041 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,163.48	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Bucks	49c	10,000$4,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,899.72	1,374	50.1%689 W · 685 L	+34.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed 76ers	54c	9,085$4,875 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,210	112	52.7%59 W · 53 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked Bucks	47c	8,834$4,152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,152.02	68	41.2%28 W · 40 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed 76ers	54c	5,554$2,999 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,555.55	458	50.4%231 W · 227 L	+11.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks	46c	5,522$2,561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,560.66	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Bucks	48c	4,508$2,156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,156.31	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed 76ers	53c	4,083$2,164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,919.37	1,163	52.8%614 W · 549 L	+22.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ab…b6ffbacked 76ers	53c	4,000$2,120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,880	85	55.3%47 W · 38 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed 76ers	52c	3,075$1,599 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,475.86	237	47.7%113 W · 124 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed 76ers	52c	2,506$1,303 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,202.98	1,024	50.8%520 W · 504 L	+18.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed 76ers	52c	1,486$773 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$713.27	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks	48c	1,313$626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$626.2	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked 76ers	51c	1,169$596 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$572.93	646	51.7%334 W · 312 L	-14.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bucks	42c	1,140$483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$482.78	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed 76ers	51c	1,000$509 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$491.14	509	54.8%279 W · 230 L	+14.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x899a…2a22backed Bucks	51c	981$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	172	41.9%72 W · 100 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked 76ers	54c	980.59$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$451.07	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed 76ers	45c	975.59$441 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$534.7	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe544…ab18backed 76ers	52c	738.2$387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$351.7	78	51.3%40 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Bucks	56c	703$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.68	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Bucks	48c	625.99$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.48	406	48%195 W · 211 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Bucks	46c	550.92$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.02	208	38%79 W · 129 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Bucks	49c	515$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.35	303	51.8%157 W · 146 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Bucks	46c	490$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.6	221	38%84 W · 137 L	-11.6wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Bucks	48c	482.49$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.6	1,562	47.4%741 W · 821 L	-6.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked 76ers	62c	482.44$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.44	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca5…e6c9backed 76ers	54c	470$254 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.2	112	56.3%63 W · 49 L	+9.0wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bucks	48c	437.48$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.27	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1df…16c1backed 76ers	53c	377.36$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.36	65	52.3%34 W · 31 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe098…8ee2backed 76ers	55c	364.25$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.25	207	54.1%112 W · 95 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed 76ers	55c	314.6$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.6	389	42.9%167 W · 222 L	-16.9wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed 76ers	52c	297.2$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.96	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed 76ers	53c	284.91$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.91	50	36%18 W · 32 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bucks	44c	276.61$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.48	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bucks	48c	261.39$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.94	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Bucks	46c	217.39$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	366	49.5%181 W · 185 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Bucks	48c	208.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	634	47.5%301 W · 333 L	-19.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed 76ers	61c	184.38$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.26	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Bucks	40c	182.16$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.46	397	36.3%144 W · 253 L	-27.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed 76ers	52c	174$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.52	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks	47c	149$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.66	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1d…219ebacked Bucks	48c	145.83$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	70	40%28 W · 42 L	-8.0wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Bucks	49c	142.3$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.07	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b3a…1440backed Bucks	47c	141.14$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.43	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Bucks	43c	130.32$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.57	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec66…e58fbacked Bucks	47c	127.66$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	242	50.8%123 W · 119 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17d4…d0eabacked 76ers	52c	122.79$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.94	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Bucks	51c	117.65$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	364	53%193 W · 171 L	-17.0wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Bucks	56c	117$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.54	619	39.6%245 W · 374 L	-17.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7fb…5623backed Bucks	55c	115.33$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.31	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked 76ers	52c	114.28$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.85	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce3e…2f24backed 76ers	53c	113.21$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.21	250	56.8%142 W · 108 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Bucks	49c	110$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.35	1,634	48.1%786 W · 848 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f20…eaf6backed Bucks	48c	104.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	85	43.5%37 W · 48 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked 76ers	53c	100.76$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.76	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe42d…62febacked 76ers	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	213	52.1%111 W · 102 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed 76ers	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed 76ers	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bucks	43c	90$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Bucks	45c	86$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.7	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Bucks	46c	85.56$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.36	432	44%190 W · 242 L	-18.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c04…2e2dbacked Bucks	47c	72.34$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	506	48%243 W · 263 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked 76ers	51c	70.86$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.86	659	50.8%335 W · 324 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Bucks	47c	63.19$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x074e…317fbacked Bucks	46c	59.99$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	165	53.9%89 W · 76 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed 76ers	49c	58.92$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.75	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Bucks	37c	55.15$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.61	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb53c…c76ebacked Bucks	50c	52.3$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	487	40.7%198 W · 289 L	-13.0wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a09…76e9backed 76ers	53c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.5	74	50%37 W · 37 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Bucks	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	382	52.4%200 W · 182 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Bucks	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	493	51.7%255 W · 238 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9073…13b3backed Bucks	57c	46.52$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.52	99	42.4%42 W · 57 L	-9.6wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x97e5…e2f4backed 76ers	69c	43.48$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.48	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-4.4wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x203d…e00fbacked Bucks	48c	41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.68	45	33.3%15 W · 30 L	-4.4wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-29%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3da1…c13bbacked 76ers	53c	40$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.8	421	46.1%194 W · 227 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Bucks	46c	39.8$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.41	118	49.2%58 W · 60 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked 76ers	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	436	47.9%209 W · 227 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28a2…91a4backed Bucks	48c	37$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.76	88	52.3%46 W · 42 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf280…b65bbacked Bucks	48c	33.39$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.99	307	43%132 W · 175 L	-19.1wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-19%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9487…54bbbacked Bucks	46c	32.6$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	169	35.5%60 W · 109 L	-16.9wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7eaa…3ea5backed Bucks	48c	31.28$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.15	226	55.3%125 W · 101 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87c8…2cb0backed 76ers	52c	26$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.48	33	54.5%18 W · 15 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x971c…f72cbacked 76ers	53c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.75	152	53.3%81 W · 71 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9ff7…9ab6backed 76ers	53c	24.95$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.67	454	60.4%274 W · 180 L	+21.6wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: 76ers (-9.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event