China Taiwan · resolved market
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0b56d7e621c7cbcfa47fe1a9c24f3409e189180fd6bda55b7a8113129839afc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,006,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,470,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,006,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,527 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe821…b27ebacked Yes | 1c | 370,413$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,299.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 2c | 323,079$5,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,652.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…8708backed Yes | 3c | 276,104$9,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,058.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…309ebacked Yes | 2c | 266,000$4,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,256.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…1c31backed Yes | 0c | 175,919$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…f2a8backed Yes | 3c | 171,615$5,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,411.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f3…2822backed Yes | 4c | 150,070$5,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,404.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7144…6624backed Yes | 3c | 125,303$3,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,253.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1545…3599backed Yes | 4c | 77,358$3,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,004.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f1…2417backed Yes | 2c | 77,342$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 4c | 71,028$2,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,877.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e2…5f01backed Yes | 1c | 70,975$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…f147backed Yes | 1c | 66,321$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf51…e63cbacked Yes | 2c | 65,038$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19fc…b4e3backed Yes | 2c | 64,553$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c2…cf77backed Yes | 5c | 52,057$2,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,492.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…906bbacked Yes | 0c | 51,301$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718e…3ef9backed Yes | 3c | 45,859$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 2c | 43,555$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 40,600$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.2 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 4c | 40,500$1,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,427.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a7…9e8dbacked Yes | 1c | 40,108$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 37,156$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.16 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…ca30backed Yes | 3c | 35,000$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 34,898$1,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,607.29 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…e765backed Yes | 1c | 33,967$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ca…0957backed Yes | 1c | 33,100$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 32,898$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.02 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de6…c273backed Yes | 3c | 32,811$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaed…089fbacked Yes | 2c | 31,994$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…12dfbacked Yes | 8c | 31,777$2,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,392 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…cf5fbacked Yes | 6c | 31,119$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b9…a687backed Yes | 4c | 31,050$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…edafbacked Yes | 5c | 30,545$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ef…e6e1backed Yes | 3c | 28,203$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 27,539$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.14 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 1c | 27,494$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 27,033$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.03 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c6…4710backed Yes | 6c | 25,563$1,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe620…03acbacked Yes | 4c | 24,551$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c27…4381backed Yes | 4c | 23,108$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…d84ebacked Yes | 1c | 22,880$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 5c | 22,265$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f2…6878backed Yes | 5c | 22,132$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d46…a6bfbacked Yes | 7c | 21,063$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f80…fa5cbacked Yes | 2c | 20,000$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 4c | 19,790$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 19,387$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.48 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f3…7877backed Yes | 6c | 19,164$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4e…e956backed Yes | 1c | 18,393$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f96…de69backed Yes | 6c | 18,307$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 5c | 18,075$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…8c02backed Yes | 2c | 18,001$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…73bfbacked Yes | 6c | 17,907$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 17,698$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…f372backed Yes | 1c | 15,891$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 3c | 14,570$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6294…8862backed Yes | 1c | 14,397$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 14,186$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.98 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd9…14d6backed Yes | 1c | 14,181$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 13,803$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x493a…ffd3backed Yes | 1c | 13,454$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…d588backed Yes | 2c | 13,294$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Yes | 5c | 13,065$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7937backed Yes | 1c | 12,580$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4974…130cbacked Yes | 2c | 12,315$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x893c…3f0fbacked Yes | 6c | 12,227$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…a410backed Yes | 2c | 11,764$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 5c | 11,470$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…51fbbacked Yes | 4c | 11,438$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 3c | 11,402$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd8…8e08backed Yes | 7c | 11,282$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e3…109bbacked Yes | 1c | 11,121$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df2…676abacked Yes | 3c | 11,000$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…54bcbacked Yes | 4c | 10,898$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…924bbacked Yes | 8c | 10,837$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…8fbcbacked Yes | 2c | 10,666$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Yes | 3c | 10,530$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…cf03backed Yes | 1c | 10,335$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…bfc5backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…275fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…9cb9backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 3c | 10,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c6…1515backed Yes | 4c | 9,817$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed Yes | 3c | 9,201$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0c…d570backed Yes | 3c | 9,197$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes | 3c | 9,146$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Yes | 4c | 9,049$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d03…af4dbacked Yes | 7c | 8,875$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7562…4984backed Yes | 2c | 8,588$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…4925backed Yes | 6c | 8,571$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe6…440bbacked Yes | 4c | 8,451$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40af…abb2backed Yes | 7c | 8,444$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x971b…b67dbacked Yes | 6c | 8,428$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 3c | 8,198$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17df…fee5backed Yes | 6c | 8,097$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…0bf8backed Yes | 4c | 8,077$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0831…dce1backed Yes | 6c | 7,960$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 7,682$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.12 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…27b6backed Yes | 3c | 7,679$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.