TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Kings vs. 76ers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
76ersof Kings, 76ers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,778,093
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,858,032

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,778,093 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 810 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb8e6…d504backed Kings22c450,394$100,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,486.8721057.1%120 W · 90 L+20.3wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Kings19c294,568$55,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,270.6151844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked 76ers79c160,493$126,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,375.4554539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 76ers78c149,588$116,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,583.839,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Kings21c143,572$30,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,150.21,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed 76ers80c105,660$84,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,443.5323257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed 76ers80c96,134$76,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,377.082,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed 76ers77c95,856$74,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,646.8839842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Kings21c91,842$19,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,011.461,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Kings19c90,378$16,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,783.5127424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Kings22c84,579$18,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,398.340446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Kings18c80,842$14,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,551.4987144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0aa3…64e9backed 76ers79c68,530$54,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,391.36358.7%37 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Kings2c66,943$1,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,496.061,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44d4…1970backed Kings23c59,000$13,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,57016752.1%87 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked 76ers78c55,678$43,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,185.11,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed 76ers79c46,151$36,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,562.724,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Kings48c45,000$21,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,599.999043.3%39 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked 76ers78c42,374$33,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,322.229857.1%56 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Kings17c41,824$7,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,310.0847028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked 76ers79c40,000$31,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,40059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 76ers63c36,660$23,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,534.435,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 76ers67c34,357$23,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,290.728,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Kings20c30,001$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,000.220551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed 76ers80c30,000$24,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,00015247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Kings20c29,998$5,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,935.9514243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked 76ers79c25,176$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,175.8420758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed 76ers59c22,451$13,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,132.73,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Kings34c20,577$6,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,996.451,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed 76ers80c20,000$16,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00023245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Kings9c19,000$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,72028742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65e3…76bdbacked 76ers80c18,874$15,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,774.781233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-50.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed 76ers79c18,450$14,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,784.943,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked Kings1c16,262$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.6227943%120 W · 159 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Kings18c15,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked 76ers80c15,000$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00019150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked 76ers54c14,930$8,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,831.7348956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Kings21c14,288$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000.3935438.1%135 W · 219 L+1.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Kings44c14,274$6,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,295.8448845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe588…7658backed 76ers78c12,700$9,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7942100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed 76ers78c12,664$9,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,848.5159347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed 76ers78c12,160$9,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,675.230845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Kings20c12,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40031445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed 76ers78c11,949$9,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,688.525251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Kings60c11,550$6,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,877.931,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed 76ers78c11,200$8,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,46446342.5%197 W · 266 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Kings18c11,111$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00048938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked 76ers78c10,587$8,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,329.1448352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed 76ers79c10,442$8,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,225.62,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed 76ers80c10,088$8,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,035.9227865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked 76ers50c10,012$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,012.337758.4%45 W · 32 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed 76ers79c9,857$7,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,063.14,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kings41c9,567$3,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,913.622,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c15…35aebacked 76ers79c9,000$7,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,89010236.3%37 W · 65 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed 76ers79c9,000$7,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,89019048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49cd…95e8backed Kings1c8,050$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked 76ers28c7,086$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,085.7121143.1%91 W · 120 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed 76ers35c7,000$2,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,556.491,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked 76ers78c6,952$5,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.492,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Kings25c6,418$1,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.712,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed 76ers77c6,337$4,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,457.511,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b4f…6678backed 76ers32c6,248$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,248.531154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick69cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked 76ers80c6,235$4,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.9628649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Kings20c6,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20019751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Kings22c6,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.9932051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb986…d032backed 76ers56c5,772$3,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,546.893554.3%19 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed 76ers76c5,329$4,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267.775350.9%27 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb98e…8823backed 76ers78c5,150$4,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.9618456%103 W · 81 L+16.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Kings21c5,081$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06733735.3%119 W · 218 L+1.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Kings20c5,050$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0101,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Kings20c5,005$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00115841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2219…e243backed 76ers78c5,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1005646.4%26 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a90…7bf8backed 76ers80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0009260.9%56 W · 36 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Kings19c5,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9506540%26 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Kings20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00034645.7%158 W · 188 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed 76ers77c5,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,15022140.3%89 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed 76ers52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40048347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked 76ers79c5,000$3,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04035251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed 76ers78c4,890$3,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.8235450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66c9…2e68backed 76ers65c4,472$2,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,568.866758.2%39 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked 76ers78c4,437$3,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.161,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Kings18c4,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72061835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Kings54c3,821$2,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,054.4885344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked 76ers80c3,751$3,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.214358.7%84 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa6a9…c3fdbacked Kings18c3,744$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed 76ers47c3,623$1,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,935.859938.4%38 W · 61 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8566…c626backed 76ers52c3,500$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,680.151266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Kings20c3,467$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.9820838%79 W · 129 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Kings1c3,333$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3335326.6%94 W · 259 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Kings43c3,277$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,397.521,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Kings48c3,200$1,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.6981529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Kings21c3,153$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.4741832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Kings19c3,102$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.2934654%187 W · 159 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42fd…4661backed Kings19c3,100$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5896448.4%31 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Kings19c3,100$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57644821.4%96 W · 352 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Kings22c3,024$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.2930947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Kings20c3,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60046632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e8…f218backed Kings19c3,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5701225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7c9…0f2bbacked Kings19c2,888$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.8413543.7%59 W · 76 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked 76ers77c2,869$2,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.4223052.6%121 W · 109 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.