China Taiwan · resolved market
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2701e5a5b751418c5c5bf0faaafdea60ac9fc893eb75fd88e902cd97458d375b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,607,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,001,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,607,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 814 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe062…bd2dbacked Yes | 2c | 233,053$3,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,962.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…fa0dbacked Yes | 2c | 205,689$3,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,812 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7144…6624backed Yes | 1c | 185,393$1,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,791.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 2c | 177,827$3,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,512.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0966…d484backed Yes | 3c | 177,314$4,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,990.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d2…b69fbacked Yes | 1c | 160,695$1,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 1c | 155,754$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdadf…b1edbacked Yes | 0c | 117,682$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3a…6b7bbacked Yes | 1c | 114,741$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 2c | 113,705$2,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,082.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…178dbacked Yes | 0c | 111,584$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 109,312$2,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,085.59 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Yes | 1c | 97,022$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…3408backed Yes | 2c | 86,340$1,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…0bd5backed Yes | 2c | 79,405$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 2c | 75,364$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1900…d545backed Yes | 2c | 71,295$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Yes | 2c | 70,239$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 67,876$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.03 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 1c | 67,008$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.52 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96a7…9e8dbacked Yes | 1c | 63,445$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…d4ecbacked Yes | 1c | 62,982$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe00…8e87backed Yes | 0c | 62,437$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718e…3ef9backed Yes | 1c | 60,918$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 57,525$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.94 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c5…5cbabacked Yes | 1c | 56,230$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa819…8085backed Yes | 1c | 52,430$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…81abbacked Yes | 0c | 50,684$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9557…7136backed Yes | 1c | 47,857$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…d762backed Yes | 1c | 47,490$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 1c | 44,866$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…84ddbacked Yes | 2c | 44,363$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…359cbacked Yes | 2c | 44,245$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked Yes | 0c | 42,738$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3da…5bc6backed Yes | 1c | 42,640$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…8955backed Yes | 2c | 42,268$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c6…4710backed Yes | 3c | 40,241$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 40,085$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.19 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…c561backed Yes | 0c | 39,700$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 39,663$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef9…4479backed Yes | 1c | 38,335$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…1de6backed Yes | 0c | 37,005$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfb…3a85backed Yes | 1c | 36,965$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b1…5bcbbacked Yes | 1c | 35,254$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafe…3e6ebacked Yes | 1c | 33,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…df7dbacked Yes | 2c | 32,396$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f1…2417backed Yes | 2c | 31,871$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f3…7877backed Yes | 2c | 31,853$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x893c…3f0fbacked Yes | 1c | 31,741$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0a…7dddbacked Yes | 0c | 31,674$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 29,342$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.79 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb46…6286backed Yes | 2c | 28,755$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67eb…7ed0backed Yes | 4c | 28,107$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe413…32d3backed Yes | 2c | 27,871$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…f7afbacked Yes | 4c | 27,425$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…fbe9backed Yes | 2c | 27,050$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…2c99backed Yes | 2c | 27,006$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced4…9e7cbacked Yes | 1c | 26,891$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c6…1515backed Yes | 1c | 26,061$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb2…ea18backed Yes | 0c | 25,230$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 25,160$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.83 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af3…2f16backed Yes | 0c | 24,980$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa953…5dfcbacked Yes | 1c | 24,094$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 23,294$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.04 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f3…2822backed Yes | 1c | 22,761$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 22,699$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 22,300$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9105…ffa5backed Yes | 2c | 22,057$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb935…204bbacked Yes | 1c | 22,024$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d46…a6bfbacked Yes | 3c | 21,126$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65e…60a4backed Yes | 2c | 20,796$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…998cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,578$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd906…7bb1backed Yes | 2c | 20,447$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d60…c8c2backed Yes | 3c | 17,890$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5475…bafdbacked Yes | 2c | 17,373$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa883…a17fbacked Yes | 4c | 16,899$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad34…4fddbacked Yes | 1c | 16,697$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f81…5394backed Yes | 4c | 16,665$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…b719backed Yes | 1c | 16,508$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fa…ee3ebacked Yes | 2c | 16,232$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe74e…90b6backed Yes | 0c | 16,180$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b74…778cbacked Yes | 1c | 16,097$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 3c | 15,917$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1f…cf4abacked Yes | 1c | 15,691$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 15,050$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2274…fc4abacked Yes | 3c | 15,029$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 3c | 15,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 14,816$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 1c | 14,736$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.65 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcac5…45e9backed Yes | 1c | 14,400$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5592…278cbacked Yes | 2c | 14,369$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 14,118$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…d8dabacked Yes | 1c | 13,883$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…88a3backed Yes | 2c | 13,704$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ed…6609backed Yes | 4c | 13,514$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba31…5a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 13,255$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cb…2372backed Yes | 1c | 13,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a40…d801backed Yes | 4c | 12,961$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3d…963ebacked Yes | 2c | 12,375$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.