TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,867,806
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,537,435

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,867,806 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,861 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x259c…7c55backed No2c112,937$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed No0c81,149$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.33135.5%11 W · 20 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid-20.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes79c75,530$59,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,118.625337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a35…0d46backed Yes58c74,534$42,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,607.37825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No1c66,809$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.161344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb82…9f37backed No3c59,985$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.51520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-74.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79e7…af36backed No1c59,932$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.3620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eed…cb2abacked No17c54,523$9,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,126.38540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-37.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes71c46,808$33,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,675.452133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid+28.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x328d…f7a9backed Yes63c40,798$25,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,293.131266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked No0c32,266$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.13170%0 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes15c30,668$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,168.227357.5%42 W · 31 L+10.1wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+53.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes66c30,087$19,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,298.8557636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed Yes80c29,641$23,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,032.331233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes24c28,222$6,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,432.566219.4%12 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No49c26,976$13,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,345.836740.3%27 W · 40 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1710…3344backed No0c25,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No1c25,000$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22512129.8%36 W · 85 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c0e…c51dbacked Yes76c24,493$18,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,812.06450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc289…7878backed Yes17c24,379$4,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,350.911127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32fe…c924backed No1c22,786$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e78…ea77backed No45c21,557$9,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,689.64839.6%19 W · 29 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7919…72b2backed Yes77c19,670$15,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,558.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed Yes42c19,119$8,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,024.636756.7%38 W · 29 L+11.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+26.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes44c19,050$8,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,703.0830233.8%102 W · 200 L+19.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes4c18,885$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,1477420.3%15 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No16c18,484$3,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,044.0116612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes17c18,393$3,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,311.77436.5%27 W · 47 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes13c18,018$2,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,670.814330.8%44 W · 99 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+104.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c17,946$11,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,506.9188448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes33c17,760$5,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,814.219053.3%48 W · 42 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes49c17,406$8,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,841.188237.8%31 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes22c17,054$3,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,307.8818216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes79c17,006$13,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,579.8518036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5acd…c079backed No3c16,793$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No3c16,509$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.436883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes68c16,413$11,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,213.0315230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes8c16,150$1,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,835.1913334.6%46 W · 87 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a87…ce4abacked No1c15,977$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a4…9b6cbacked No1c15,563$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes53c15,165$7,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,176.059348.4%45 W · 48 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xceab…dce7backed No18c14,946$2,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,711.351838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No47c14,351$6,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,801.846139.3%24 W · 37 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-40.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed Yes21c13,066$2,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,376.98143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ea4…2bd2backed No5c12,994$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.93922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-69.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e14…b4b8backed Yes24c12,850$3,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,816.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+323.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x768b…de48backed Yes64c12,665$8,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,548.81233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-49.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes42c12,507$5,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,274.3210037%37 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed Yes74c12,499$9,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,259.19944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cbf…3186backed No35c12,343$4,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,280.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b30…c0b6backed Yes7c12,323$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,516.141010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid+52.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x932b…64c0backed No2c11,698$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.822711.1%3 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+611.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes43c11,667$5,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,664.616030%18 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked No6c11,261$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.641520%3 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a50…0ec7backed No38c10,982$4,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,204.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1963…5beabacked Yes9c10,950$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,962.66944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick24cpaid+87.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes6c10,437$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,787.437828.2%22 W · 56 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+1.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc2d…6f93backed Yes8c10,164$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,355.22714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+79.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9c3…713ebacked No1c10,100$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes73c10,055$7,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,745.927761%47 W · 30 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d8c…0b5cbacked Yes50c10,034$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,033.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x729d…5ad3backed No1c10,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed No1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b87…6a47backed Yes38c10,000$3,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,246.71955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…ea58backed No26c9,850$2,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,534.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa18d…f38cbacked Yes55c9,845$5,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,406.981283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+18.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes41c9,825$4,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,820.944334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4589…57f6backed Yes33c9,645$3,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,415.351154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e34…9cd8backed Yes7c9,257$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,601.22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+370.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes47c9,242$4,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,865.8628430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c8,806$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.224440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes4c8,650$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,297.96837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+446.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes77c8,600$6,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,989.7814632.2%47 W · 99 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfee5…dadabacked Yes64c8,499$5,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,019.41425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0009…1d43backed Yes63c8,422$5,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,114.51771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked No1c8,377$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.261030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x850c…498cbacked No6c8,000$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31ec…ab04backed Yes7c7,905$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,328.65205%1 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xccb3…6d86backed No1c7,600$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a36…3aabbacked Yes18c7,587$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,225.63785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick52cpaid+98%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Yes68c7,485$5,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,405.112759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No4c7,214$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.471152.6%3 W · 112 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8eb…3df0backed No3c7,177$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b1…ce4ebacked No1c7,160$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes53c7,051$3,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,283.8628434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa217…296ebacked No1c7,027$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.19616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-53.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e39…ec6bbacked No4c6,770$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x113a…89c0backed No4c6,753$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe379…3c98backed Yes69c6,734$4,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,100.59333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-51.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd821…e681backed No1c6,714$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.71633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…55a0backed Yes27c6,696$1,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,864.14580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+66.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes49c6,516$3,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,345.311,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed Yes43c6,511$2,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,699.1610122.8%23 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x21c9…1b1abacked Yes24c6,480$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,946.851266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes4c6,467$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,213.822040%8 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+178.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No4c6,417$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.37772.6%2 W · 75 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes21c6,391$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,046.998035%28 W · 52 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa212…827fbacked Yes37c6,195$2,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,879.81728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa667…84febacked Yes6c6,040$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,706.82326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd8f…a3b1backed No1c6,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.