World Politics · resolved market
Will Paulo Portas win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bdf73e4f9d1f9bddd76011f7c7f70ac2a7bf02858f6e724ff17fab39cdb84aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,839,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,839,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfcb9…2612backed Yes | 0c | 799,246$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd1…21d4backed Yes | 0c | 68,916$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea51…f1d4backed Yes | 0c | 68,914$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…5314backed Yes | 0c | 67,751$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a0…7c4bbacked Yes | 0c | 67,723$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e35…bfd4backed Yes | 0c | 67,318$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…eacdbacked Yes | 0c | 67,147$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…74f6backed Yes | 0c | 66,925$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d05…bf2bbacked Yes | 0c | 66,845$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe223…a4f0backed Yes | 0c | 66,514$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49f…50cbbacked Yes | 0c | 66,487$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e4…77b8backed Yes | 0c | 66,481$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…264bbacked Yes | 0c | 66,120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7b…d688backed Yes | 0c | 66,116$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255e…a368backed Yes | 0c | 66,007$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…fbf2backed Yes | 0c | 65,922$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x393a…4f90backed Yes | 0c | 65,716$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…4b95backed Yes | 0c | 65,544$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe137…fccdbacked Yes | 0c | 65,532$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b1…bdc4backed Yes | 0c | 65,397$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…cf6dbacked Yes | 0c | 65,388$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8069…6b8dbacked Yes | 0c | 65,376$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…ffaabacked Yes | 0c | 65,358$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…5909backed Yes | 0c | 65,286$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…5091backed Yes | 0c | 65,283$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80eb…2f4abacked Yes | 0c | 65,176$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…a5adbacked Yes | 0c | 65,163$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…2f08backed Yes | 0c | 65,125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb3…ee87backed Yes | 0c | 64,774$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3154…2c61backed Yes | 0c | 64,759$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf4…8d1dbacked Yes | 0c | 64,758$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd477…9111backed Yes | 0c | 64,743$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfca…a40abacked Yes | 0c | 64,595$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfe…ad6abacked Yes | 0c | 64,396$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf17f…738cbacked Yes | 0c | 64,383$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb618…8d73backed Yes | 0c | 64,338$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dad…bed1backed Yes | 0c | 64,289$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…63cebacked Yes | 0c | 63,809$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…2b12backed Yes | 0c | 63,742$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x259e…366dbacked Yes | 0c | 63,665$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…8869backed Yes | 0c | 63,647$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 0c | 57,946$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f1a6backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 11,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…0cc9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdebd…5130backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d52…b944backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…1930backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…8748backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cf…8b25backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6105…30adbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 2c | 1,658$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paulo Portas win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?this page
- Will André Pestana win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will António Filipe win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Yes won
- Will Aristides Teixeira win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Catarina Martins win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Joana Amaral Dias win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Jorge Pinto win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will José Cardoso win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Manuela Magno win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Orlando Cruz win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Pedro Passos Coelho win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Pedro Tinoco de Faria win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Raul Perestrello win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Rui Moreira win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Tim Vieira win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Vitorino Silva win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Ângela Maryah win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.