TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Ângela Maryah win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,078,441
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$239,105

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,078,441 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes0c65,680$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6818216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99c8…f12abacked Yes0c60,140$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb68d…9222backed Yes0c59,591$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d49…da53backed Yes0c59,315$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf075…6257backed Yes0c59,293$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5bd…5bddbacked Yes0c58,907$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7701…cc67backed Yes0c58,797$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…25ffbacked Yes0c58,720$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1243…d100backed Yes0c58,367$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dbf…f416backed Yes0c58,250$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53d9…76f9backed Yes0c58,167$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb287…38c1backed Yes0c58,045$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aa6…a252backed Yes0c57,836$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec6b…aaa0backed Yes0c57,773$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1af2…a126backed Yes0c57,334$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4116…10fabacked Yes0c57,144$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc601…c598backed Yes0c56,787$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2c5…3020backed Yes0c56,746$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf338…7b0dbacked Yes0c56,721$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff0c…8624backed Yes0c56,654$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49f4…e155backed Yes0c56,543$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ae…52b5backed Yes0c56,516$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f9…73bfbacked Yes0c56,187$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4668…efc4backed Yes0c56,157$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2440…2f31backed Yes0c56,149$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf01…8d23backed Yes0c55,686$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc10…ab93backed Yes0c55,592$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81da…e41dbacked Yes0c55,408$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe16b…ce48backed Yes0c55,331$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1b4…47f7backed Yes0c55,231$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dde…ecb8backed Yes0c55,152$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xced7…82d1backed Yes0c44,800$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.870%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd55…7955backed Yes0c44,303$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.370%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eee…ee55backed Yes0c44,300$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.370%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f15…51aebacked Yes0c44,250$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9689…f61dbacked Yes0c44,250$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd100…5ee3backed Yes0c44,060$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0670%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe714…771ebacked Yes0c43,990$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9970%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba23…531bbacked Yes0c43,942$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e2…fb4cbacked Yes0c43,850$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ba6…2b2ebacked Yes0c43,770$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4cc…2280backed Yes0c43,770$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9932…5a49backed Yes0c43,630$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6370%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a4e…2168backed Yes0c43,610$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6170%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x361f…8a37backed Yes0c43,610$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6170%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ec…77aabacked Yes0c43,590$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5970%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21eb…a39cbacked Yes0c43,530$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93d7…6b2bbacked Yes0c43,520$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb461…1ddabacked Yes0c43,450$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c0…c2f8backed Yes0c43,440$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb40…3cddbacked Yes0c43,420$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4270%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ef7…e176backed Yes0c43,420$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4270%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf37a…127fbacked Yes0c43,390$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3970%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x174f…5a36backed Yes0c43,350$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf69…deadbacked Yes0c43,280$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb92…bb82backed Yes0c43,240$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2470%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc198…72c1backed Yes0c43,190$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e8…dd98backed Yes0c43,180$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e06…8679backed Yes0c43,170$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x308d…f9a8backed Yes0c43,100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0c…0496backed Yes0c43,090$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0970%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89c8…4bdebacked Yes0c43,080$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7235…fb45backed Yes0c43,000$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4370%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5433…462cbacked Yes0c42,990$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9970%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bbe…01fcbacked Yes0c42,930$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a1f…1b4ebacked Yes0c42,890$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x254e…7629backed Yes0c42,890$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x048c…3d47backed Yes0c42,860$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f6…196fbacked Yes0c42,810$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cea…53edbacked Yes0c42,790$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbef…026abacked Yes0c42,770$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe444…74c6backed Yes0c42,730$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4503…e250backed Yes0c42,660$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f55…e0d6backed Yes0c42,560$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5670%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3bd…8843backed Yes0c42,510$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f7…ef69backed Yes0c42,390$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ddb…ec62backed Yes0c42,320$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1cf…6a44backed Yes0c42,210$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c42,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1daf…461ebacked Yes0c41,610$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6170%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28f8…ce2fbacked Yes0c41,520$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1636…0ddfbacked Yes0c39,782$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x010e…78fcbacked Yes0c39,602$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc012…db3cbacked Yes0c39,522$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27aa…f89fbacked Yes0c39,480$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6f0…e6c9backed Yes0c39,469$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b62…987ebacked Yes0c39,421$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54a6…5aa9backed Yes0c39,308$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8726…3bedbacked Yes0c39,143$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa178…2307backed Yes0c38,644$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd51…2051backed Yes0c38,611$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2780…536cbacked Yes0c38,373$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4360…c248backed Yes0c36,956$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d3e…bae7backed Yes0c36,688$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2987…49b0backed Yes0c36,542$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ad…537bbacked Yes0c36,479$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe900…8246backed Yes0c34,057$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcd2…a311backed Yes0c33,940$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c73…527bbacked Yes0c33,840$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51e3…3cfbbacked Yes0c33,820$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.