TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,399,481
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,094,668

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,399,481 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,765 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c88…f4e2backed Yes1c752,305$5,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,821.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94aa…024ebacked Yes2c476,060$10,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,860.96837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc2d…6f93backed Yes5c400,075$21,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,035.56714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+79.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8efe…2261backed Yes3c308,123$9,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,119.3520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-63.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc610…5d03backed Yes2c242,553$3,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,802.170%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes4c237,682$9,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,936.96219.4%12 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e2b…9ff9backed Yes4c204,462$8,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,657.23333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+82.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79e7…af36backed Yes1c198,952$2,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,277.4220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f2…eecfbacked Yes5c197,312$9,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,071.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes5c179,290$8,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,353.324814.6%7 W · 41 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid+46.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fcc…e083backed Yes5c172,807$9,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,235.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb82…9f37backed Yes3c163,594$5,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,570520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-74.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x104a…5b05backed Yes6c155,691$8,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,850850%4 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c150,567$5,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,578.426883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c7…9c96backed Yes5c123,426$6,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,067.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70e5…32aabacked Yes4c119,180$4,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,857.8714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-78.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12af…3c82backed Yes5c115,897$5,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,896.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ae…254abacked Yes5c111,166$5,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,998.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d5b…a718backed Yes5c110,541$6,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,060.6290%0 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77d7…6547backed Yes1c109,061$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.62825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+7,883.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc432…cb9dbacked Yes3c101,115$2,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,959.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e25…9292backed Yes3c99,675$2,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,554.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7518…b499backed Yes1c95,740$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.4620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes4c92,736$4,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,123.08825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9d…1469backed Yes6c92,358$5,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,702.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3841…cd5cbacked Yes5c86,366$3,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,967.49450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+29.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes0c82,486$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.463135.5%11 W · 20 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid-20.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes1c82,257$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.83170%0 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f5…221ebacked Yes1c81,868$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf861…b42ebacked Yes5c79,500$4,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,096.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a3e…3770backed Yes5c78,144$3,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,870.1880%0 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x552d…656fbacked Yes4c76,388$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,749.9740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c73,365$3,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,473.922344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e78…ea77backed Yes4c67,156$3,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,017.314839.6%19 W · 29 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb874…489abacked Yes1c66,128$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc954…1c82backed Yes6c66,117$3,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,860.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes4c64,491$2,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,810.7218216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes5c63,648$2,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,935.575817.2%10 W · 48 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-61%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd9e…bac6backed Yes4c60,455$2,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,24410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x413f…47f3backed Yes5c60,000$3,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,212.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-67.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes1c60,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47012129.8%36 W · 85 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x932b…64c0backed Yes3c58,004$1,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,772.792711.1%3 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+611.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd93a…d4c2backed Yes1c57,020$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceca…6c42backed Yes6c56,302$3,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,404.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5b…d4ecbacked Yes4c56,166$2,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,151.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3774…886ebacked Yes5c54,659$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb862…f6c3backed Yes4c54,584$2,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,400.5550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b30…c0b6backed Yes5c53,970$2,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,633.51010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid+52.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3be…a818backed Yes1c50,563$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2497…e26abacked Yes7c49,478$3,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,255.24450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+363.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes5c48,697$2,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.1216612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes5c46,505$2,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,505.984334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x931c…9802backed Yes1c45,484$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc452…7234backed Yes6c43,971$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3da…1ccebacked Yes6c41,546$2,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,579.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b17…fc41backed Yes6c41,110$2,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,310.84540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+28.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1580…9394backed Yes5c41,056$2,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,087.1633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-47.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9c3…713ebacked Yes1c40,566$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3295…ce54backed Yes5c39,830$2,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,066.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+124.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa3a…94aabacked Yes4c38,897$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.51333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcddf…5967backed Yes8c38,882$3,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,268.51425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb99…c879backed Yes5c38,736$1,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,895.09666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+59.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e26…5198backed Yes1c38,481$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.0260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes4c38,405$1,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,708.4772.6%2 W · 75 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c35,857$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.721344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ea…3332backed Yes3c35,698$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4403…7c46backed Yes5c34,574$1,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.331323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-65.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbedf…b69abacked Yes4c34,142$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.55650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+152.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccb3…6d86backed Yes0c33,593$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c8…ba2fbacked Yes6c33,285$2,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,13440%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8297…1e89backed Yes6c32,829$2,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,117.2860%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c73…44f4backed Yes5c32,819$1,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,781.85425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+737.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1489…3577backed Yes4c32,264$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.98633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a77…420bbacked Yes1c32,000$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d91…626dbacked Yes1c31,518$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa217…296ebacked Yes3c31,382$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.85616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-53.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0293…f15bbacked Yes2c30,311$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe54…d876backed Yes2c30,129$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee8…79dfbacked Yes4c30,000$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12560%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes5c29,545$1,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,338.071152.6%3 W · 112 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5780…a6dbbacked Yes5c29,497$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,566.9150%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf523…edb2backed Yes10c29,106$2,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,909.48757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+97.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a4a…4b36backed Yes5c28,365$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,416.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ae…f407backed Yes2c27,911$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c27,672$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.622117.1%15 W · 196 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a4…9b6cbacked Yes1c27,623$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.9320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca35…ade5backed Yes5c27,165$1,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.55933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x465e…40c9backed Yes8c26,763$2,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,269.44616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+110.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe785…5e9abacked Yes2c26,462$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.8440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c26,174$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.012543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a4c…6e8bbacked Yes4c26,061$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25c2…cd02backed Yes1c24,622$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88be…758fbacked Yes5c24,326$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x296a…46f1backed Yes2c24,200$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a35…0d46backed Yes4c23,672$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f24…134bbacked Yes6c23,152$1,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,336.75520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+164.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x030f…ca13backed Yes5c23,128$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3221…544cbacked Yes3c23,115$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.9540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6227…5da2backed Yes1c23,106$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c7f…3afbbacked Yes3c22,878$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.