Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf835de42f566a714be49df12ba436279ac3b06a8b570baaca49835cd0358c916
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,672,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,394,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,672,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 966 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 6c | 85,206$4,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,973.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…0d1bbacked Yes | 1c | 36,021$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.26 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 76c | 32,967$25,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,879.07 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x316a…c449backed Yes | 12c | 28,777$3,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,518.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 0c | 27,733$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4857…fbabbacked Yes | 13c | 27,170$3,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,617.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0914…9c93backed Yes | 4c | 24,859$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 11c | 22,978$2,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,631.53 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cb…c1dcbacked Yes | 5c | 20,848$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f38…4c9abacked Yes | 0c | 20,545$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…b8f5backed Yes | 5c | 20,345$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.97 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 18,750$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 17,565$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.41 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 75c | 15,402$11,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,839.66 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes | 18c | 14,790$2,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,589.55 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 14,467$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 74c | 13,718$10,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,588.33 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 12c | 13,463$1,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,644.05 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…02dcbacked Yes | 13c | 12,599$1,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,663.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 8c | 12,195$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.57 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…6127backed Yes | 9c | 11,674$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b7…e00bbacked Yes | 13c | 10,983$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,434.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +133.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 79c | 10,632$8,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,194.34 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 18c | 10,619$1,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,943.2 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed No | 76c | 10,279$7,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,477.21 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8453…8112backed Yes | 1c | 10,215$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac5…cf2ebacked Yes | 20c | 10,085$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x337c…80ffbacked Yes | 6c | 9,930$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…d4ecbacked Yes | 2c | 9,709$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6880…5efdbacked Yes | 11c | 9,462$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8c…f1bebacked Yes | 9c | 9,370$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +226.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ab…784ebacked Yes | 14c | 9,266$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,283.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb742…65b1backed Yes | 0c | 9,077$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 8c | 8,485$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.33 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +64%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…8e56backed Yes | 2c | 8,400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 8,282$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.82 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x991e…120dbacked Yes | 33c | 8,043$2,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,633 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -72%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…e61ebacked Yes | 9c | 7,852$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 3c | 7,533$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…dbcabacked No | 77c | 7,500$5,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,736.99 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 16c | 7,388$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.56 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0e42…0203backed Yes | 14c | 7,143$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x173e…2d86backed Yes | 3c | 7,000$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…cb76backed Yes | 16c | 6,065$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.46 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 79c | 5,900$4,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.97 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 4c | 5,500$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.67 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 16c | 5,318$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.45 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…ee57backed Yes | 12c | 5,240$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc227…b90cbacked Yes | 14c | 5,079$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed No | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 79c | 5,000$3,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…f462backed No | 74c | 5,000$3,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf74e…dda4backed No | 76c | 4,827$3,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcb…63efbacked Yes | 10c | 4,812$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 7c | 4,786$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…e1c9backed Yes | 18c | 4,782$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…7315backed Yes | 20c | 4,742$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0579…5f52backed Yes | 15c | 4,665$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.26 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e8…1941backed Yes | 24c | 4,457$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 12c | 4,452$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.65 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,450$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 21c | 4,427$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.65 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…f3cbbacked Yes | 29c | 4,417$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…8a41backed Yes | 1c | 4,263$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…989cbacked Yes | 19c | 4,243$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…26b5backed Yes | 24c | 4,120$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes | 19c | 4,010$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.99 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79e7…f41fbacked Yes | 9c | 4,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 13c | 4,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc002…ca99backed Yes | 29c | 3,760$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…a73cbacked Yes | 20c | 3,598$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb9…2213backed Yes | 22c | 3,389$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…be8cbacked Yes | 14c | 3,300$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…8c35backed Yes | 1c | 3,291$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 22c | 3,289$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.87 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 11c | 3,288$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.14 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…c864backed No | 73c | 3,284$2,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 78c | 3,250$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.99 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 64c | 3,203$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.02 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef4c…22bebacked Yes | 9c | 3,200$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…6851backed Yes | 9c | 3,182$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c8…56e4backed Yes | 25c | 3,155$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1405…fef4backed Yes | 17c | 3,149$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de1…cae5backed Yes | 9c | 3,040$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197d…a6f8backed Yes | 8c | 3,016$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…e62abacked Yes | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 7c | 3,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.7 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa68…acc5backed Yes | 7c | 2,991$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c05…4a54backed Yes | 17c | 2,983$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 73c | 2,817$2,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.59 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 19c | 2,815$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.76 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes | 6c | 2,777$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.6 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x567d…68bfbacked Yes | 33c | 2,733$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.54 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…5934backed Yes | 19c | 2,574$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c7…d648backed Yes | 15c | 2,540$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 14cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55e0…c7f9backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 27c | 2,500$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…2ee5backed Yes | 8c | 2,496$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.94 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d4…6d99backed Yes | 8c | 2,430$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…819fbacked No | 76c | 2,402$1,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?this page
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.