Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcd0df4a902df08f0d355349a4f407319cbc7953fc58fd1f96d746c5ad5a42ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,600,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,246,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,600,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 280 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c05…4a54backed Yes | 2c | 102,258$1,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,682.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 1c | 92,754$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.27 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 8c | 75,398$5,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,735.33 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24aa…7e0abacked Yes | 2c | 54,589$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 35,831$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.13 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7881…f022backed Yes | 8c | 31,991$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 2c | 27,697$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.79 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 1c | 26,875$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.74 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 0c | 23,036$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e2…2093backed Yes | 1c | 22,731$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.84 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…d4ecbacked Yes | 3c | 20,268$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a1…d6bebacked Yes | 1c | 17,940$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e16…1b7dbacked Yes | 1c | 16,849$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.05 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 2c | 15,001$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.07 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…0a35backed Yes | 1c | 14,583$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes | 4c | 14,357$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.38 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c0…6ceebacked Yes | 2c | 13,115$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c7…d648backed Yes | 3c | 12,951$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 14cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…cff5backed Yes | 11c | 10,728$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef3…0724backed Yes | 3c | 10,707$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes | 5c | 10,054$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5c…6e0dbacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 1c | 9,922$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.09 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 4c | 9,834$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.05 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…f4e1backed Yes | 4c | 9,798$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,020$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…d876backed Yes | 3c | 8,985$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.22 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 2c | 8,334$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.49 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514c…2485backed Yes | 8c | 7,826$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.18 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f38…4c9abacked Yes | 1c | 7,500$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4461…4485backed Yes | 4c | 7,073$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ede…57c0backed Yes | 2c | 7,000$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…dd19backed Yes | 6c | 6,993$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 3c | 6,912$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.98 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4a…f323backed Yes | 1c | 6,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd113…7fe7backed Yes | 3c | 6,610$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.25 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 4c | 6,593$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.71 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 3c | 6,578$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.14 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,465$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,004$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…da72backed Yes | 3c | 5,185$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x197d…a6f8backed Yes | 3c | 5,108$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9987…5563backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…722bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,998$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bf…cd5fbacked Yes | 6c | 4,747$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…1082backed Yes | 2c | 4,717$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…437fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,657$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 3c | 4,610$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.53 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…8c35backed Yes | 1c | 4,577$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b7…e00bbacked Yes | 4c | 4,526$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +133.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 2c | 4,500$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 5c | 4,433$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.64 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes | 2c | 4,420$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.44 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…1e90backed Yes | 3c | 4,310$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +215.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x575b…14f0backed Yes | 5c | 4,280$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 3c | 3,982$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7905…a886backed Yes | 1c | 3,829$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 3,819$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.52 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe791…06afbacked Yes | 0c | 3,791$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…85b5backed Yes | 11c | 3,726$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 1c | 3,630$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…ec12backed Yes | 2c | 3,629$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 2c | 3,627$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 2c | 3,500$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173e…2d86backed Yes | 1c | 3,375$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 1c | 3,339$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…eb16backed Yes | 1c | 3,322$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…1559backed Yes | 3c | 3,283$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.14 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…3690backed Yes | 3c | 3,214$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2465…8905backed Yes | 2c | 3,202$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,147$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +158.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 3,105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…1565backed Yes | 2c | 2,985$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcb…63efbacked Yes | 10c | 2,950$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,890$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…0a03backed Yes | 4c | 2,854$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f3…c7e9backed Yes | 2c | 2,837$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +337.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08dc…37d0backed Yes | 4c | 2,810$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…3678backed Yes | 9c | 2,768$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7c…d9b6backed Yes | 4c | 2,659$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 2c | 2,644$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…d8b9backed Yes | 2c | 2,567$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718e…3ef9backed Yes | 4c | 2,559$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.26 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 2c | 2,557$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05a5…5f15backed Yes | 4c | 2,549$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b5…b7acbacked Yes | 2c | 2,531$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,527$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x525c…a3adbacked Yes | 4c | 2,525$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1f…4c94backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 2,497$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 2c | 2,322$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a85…9331backed Yes | 2c | 2,321$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 3c | 2,261$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.51 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…904ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,159$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,156$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb662…8c9ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,152$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db6…dcd9backed Yes | 3c | 2,135$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.