Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0f3597d979af91ccfce9c3148d402ede5f92901f3575d86729bb43ad4ee0eae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,082,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $926,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,082,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e58…edf9backed Yes | 1c | 220,702$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,732.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 35,110$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.83 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…395bbacked Yes | 2c | 33,360$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 28,076$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.49 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcb…63efbacked Yes | 3c | 27,961$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.85 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…53e6backed Yes | 4c | 23,138$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 3c | 22,320$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.39 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0638…6f6cbacked Yes | 7c | 16,828$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…dd44backed Yes | 2c | 15,046$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.16 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…9f36backed Yes | 3c | 15,026$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,005$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,225$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…6224backed Yes | 11c | 9,119$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 3c | 8,702$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b00…7765backed Yes | 1c | 8,409$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 7c | 8,000$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.06 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,959$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 3c | 7,508$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.49 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…3863backed Yes | 7c | 7,385$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3e…75edbacked Yes | 4c | 7,374$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.82 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b1c5backed Yes | 2c | 7,374$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4752…5cb4backed Yes | 1c | 7,302$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…8a69backed Yes | 3c | 6,758$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.57 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked Yes | 2c | 6,747$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.7 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +108.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…c2bfbacked Yes | 4c | 6,105$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcc…bdb2backed Yes | 5c | 5,738$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 5,452$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.9 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0329…e67ebacked Yes | 6c | 5,416$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e7…dae4backed Yes | 9c | 5,006$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 2c | 4,435$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.85 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 2c | 4,250$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df7…0ce6backed Yes | 1c | 4,242$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…0ec9backed Yes | 4c | 4,224$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5841…26e8backed Yes | 2c | 4,215$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…7b81backed Yes | 2c | 4,143$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.21 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…5963backed Yes | 3c | 3,850$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e44…0c4ebacked Yes | 8c | 3,579$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.02 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -93%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…1b27backed Yes | 11c | 3,573$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…ecd3backed Yes | 4c | 3,382$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059b…7066backed Yes | 5c | 3,378$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd141…3d79backed Yes | 2c | 3,132$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe048…fd3ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,074$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…0146backed Yes | 0c | 3,071$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…c770backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d1…2ebcbacked Yes | 6c | 2,952$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3afa…d5b7backed Yes | 4c | 2,894$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.01 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 4c | 2,835$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…6fc4backed Yes | 5c | 2,735$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb694…f46dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,667$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc560…d99ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,583$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…172fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,521$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +352.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 2,513$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 3c | 2,500$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…7ec5backed Yes | 4c | 2,318$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…5ba1backed Yes | 5c | 2,256$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x324d…73c8backed Yes | 2c | 2,209$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff5…9937backed Yes | 5c | 2,187$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 2c | 2,183$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…2ef1backed Yes | 7c | 2,100$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 8c | 2,077$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.14 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe901…107fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,067$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0e…d5acbacked Yes | 6c | 2,018$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x074d…0198backed Yes | 5c | 2,015$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 1,928$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed9…febfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,927$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ac…17edbacked Yes | 3c | 1,846$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,825$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,822$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…cd0ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,764$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.47 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd26b…086bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,752$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -44%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe920…6d44backed Yes | 6c | 1,710$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0076…1f36backed Yes | 4c | 1,676$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…80d3backed Yes | 1c | 1,672$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe950…1659backed Yes | 8c | 1,651$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ece…6244backed Yes | 5c | 1,636$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76e8…1941backed Yes | 8c | 1,626$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…70a6backed Yes | 3c | 1,596$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…a6c0backed Yes | 6c | 1,596$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e94…7670backed Yes | 9c | 1,575$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.79 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be1…a2c5backed Yes | 7c | 1,522$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd172…8b88backed Yes | 7c | 1,513$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2658…dfc7backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…6908backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…06f5backed Yes | 3c | 1,494$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 3c | 1,490$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed5…9808backed Yes | 5c | 1,474$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c0…c729backed Yes | 3c | 1,471$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…666dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,435$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…74f1backed Yes | 1c | 1,429$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ce…6d96backed Yes | 4c | 1,405$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,400$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…5899backed Yes | 7c | 1,396$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec5b…af86backed Yes | 4c | 1,364$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 8c | 1,343$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c2…82babacked Yes | 1c | 1,336$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…b503backed Yes | 2c | 1,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Yes | 3c | 1,297$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…bdfebacked Yes | 8c | 1,273$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.85 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?this page
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.