Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4decc84ca9043bc955336d53de1533f86c426e47b2ff3c05ff63f122318ea7c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $255,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $237,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $255,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd628…43c1backed Yes | 25c | 46,786$11,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,796.62 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed Yes | 0c | 24,125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…cc49backed No | 70c | 14,174$9,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,254.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a03…33e3backed Yes | 0c | 12,849$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…4fc3backed Yes | 0c | 12,742$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 71c | 10,626$7,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,038.95 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 7,100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…665fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,638$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…06fdbacked Yes | 21c | 6,100$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.68 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +6.2wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f38…4c9abacked Yes | 1c | 5,721$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 69c | 4,731$3,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.7 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b53…3241backed Yes | 1c | 4,705$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c09…e173backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78c…e63bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,889$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 12c | 2,564$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.94 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db9…202ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked No | 68c | 2,059$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.88 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b7…f103backed No | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 48cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 14c | 1,900$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bf…a5b1backed No | 68c | 1,470$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cb…c1dcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,418$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 67c | 1,346$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.69 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 73c | 1,200$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…ab8fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,142$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 68c | 1,100$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed No | 68c | 1,044$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.41 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 79c | 1,030$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.56 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 20c | 1,026$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.19 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9987…5563backed Yes | 1c | 1,014$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x631e…b6f7backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…05eabacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c7…e125backed Yes | 21c | 953.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 72c | 857.54$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.44 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4d…96b9backed Yes | 30c | 855.73$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.72 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f53…f9fabacked Yes | 21c | 686.33$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…58e0backed No | 77c | 660$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3f…de34backed Yes | 16c | 634.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d2e9backed No | 77c | 603$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.69 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed Yes | 19c | 574$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb965…c957backed Yes | 23c | 556.95$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +140.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked No | 72c | 539.99$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…b056backed Yes | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed Yes | 21c | 511$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 21c | 508.58$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f7…fa11backed No | 66c | 500$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7be…539fbacked No | 67c | 500$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.93 | 70 | 72.9%51 W · 19 L | +12.4wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed No | 79c | 485$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.85 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed Yes | 23c | 450$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7905…a886backed Yes | 12c | 444.59$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…4cf4backed No | 65c | 441.54$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.3 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…625abacked Yes | 20c | 439.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed Yes | 19c | 403$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 19c | 360.93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x158a…03fcbacked Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 77c | 303.53$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.31 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 30c | 300$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 23c | 293$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…272dbacked No | 80c | 292.3$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…40b8backed Yes | 38c | 265.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd165…f2b8backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0579…5f52backed Yes | 18c | 259.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…bb0abacked Yes | 35c | 253.28$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…0a4abacked Yes | 24c | 250.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…51bcbacked Yes | 11c | 221.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked No | 68c | 220$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…5409backed No | 78c | 204.2$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed No | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 18c | 199.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef77…19cdbacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…a284backed No | 65c | 179.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec19…0f19backed Yes | 18c | 178.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed Yes | 19c | 177$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +151%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 20c | 175.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdef…5312backed Yes | 21c | 172.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…e891backed Yes | 21c | 167.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5800…8181backed Yes | 25c | 162.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x303a…b1b1backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed No | 79c | 153.72$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…0be2backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 62 | 72.6%45 W · 17 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…da72backed Yes | 34c | 145.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d04…0581backed Yes | 15c | 144.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff6…80e1backed Yes | 18c | 144.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked No | 77c | 143$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked No | 77c | 140$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…7b2bbacked Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea4…fa06backed Yes | 15c | 137.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3554…b75dbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…359dbacked No | 65c | 132.78$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…55c7backed Yes | 8c | 132.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26f9…f183backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 78c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x59d9…a57bbacked Yes | 38c | 106.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked No | 66c | 105$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db6…dcd9backed Yes | 32c | 101$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?this page
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.