Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x277f21a0a26b1a2ec9c4980f91f55708880a7cd4c5ab68687fad0c2f6efba698
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,484,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,166,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,484,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 941 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x316a…c449backed Yes | 3c | 86,422$2,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,548.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…edf9backed Yes | 6c | 74,730$4,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,362.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 1c | 59,324$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.77 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 5c | 51,122$2,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,351.79 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…395bbacked Yes | 12c | 50,649$6,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,198 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcb…63efbacked Yes | 6c | 45,620$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,520.24 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcf…324ebacked Yes | 13c | 34,067$4,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,548.82 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 23,528$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.08 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes | 10c | 19,626$2,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,037 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 19,137$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.11 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…ed5fbacked Yes | 3c | 17,704$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 8c | 17,510$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.22 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…dd44backed Yes | 2c | 17,061$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.11 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb5…ed3bbacked Yes | 12c | 16,687$2,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,023.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…02dcbacked Yes | 23c | 15,952$3,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,608.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf37…de6fbacked Yes | 5c | 14,891$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1222…2aa7backed Yes | 15c | 14,476$2,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,204.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…dd19backed Yes | 2c | 13,213$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 10c | 13,167$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.01 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e8…1ba3backed Yes | 4c | 12,035$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a0…46b2backed Yes | 9c | 11,584$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…d891backed Yes | 15c | 11,372$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,715 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa55…306abacked Yes | 12c | 11,316$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…43c6backed Yes | 13c | 10,807$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a4…e408backed Yes | 9c | 10,713$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2828…d265backed Yes | 9c | 10,574$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…904ebacked Yes | 11c | 10,184$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4173…6fbebacked Yes | 17c | 10,132$1,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,762.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed Yes | 7c | 9,600$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…e1c9backed Yes | 10c | 9,130$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d12…624cbacked Yes | 12c | 8,571$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 4c | 8,223$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.63 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…f498backed Yes | 16c | 8,174$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.96 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6190…5e11backed Yes | 14c | 7,903$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 7,851$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567d…68bfbacked Yes | 23c | 7,760$1,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.66 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…5ba1backed Yes | 9c | 7,588$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.44 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…387fbacked Yes | 2c | 7,513$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5180…1189backed Yes | 9c | 7,484$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…93ccbacked Yes | 1c | 7,371$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 9c | 7,284$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.68 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 5c | 6,693$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.37 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked Yes | 6c | 6,314$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.46 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +108.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…c335backed Yes | 16c | 6,277$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,205$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 4c | 6,000$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.59 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,950$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.43 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes | 4c | 5,934$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.36 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,730$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked No | 78c | 5,699$4,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.83 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 13c | 5,621$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.85 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7d…9881backed Yes | 4c | 5,357$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2562…e581backed Yes | 4c | 5,282$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb948…d0a1backed Yes | 13c | 5,277$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 1c | 5,251$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…64aebacked Yes | 19c | 5,162$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d9…26a2backed Yes | 15c | 5,007$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x650a…e30fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde95…0f6fbacked Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…eb6dbacked Yes | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2658…dfc7backed Yes | 8c | 4,900$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x624e…b1a5backed Yes | 21c | 4,859$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…1ec1backed Yes | 16c | 4,836$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.94 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1837…8da6backed Yes | 6c | 4,757$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Yes | 22c | 4,557$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa319…265dbacked Yes | 7c | 4,511$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x514c…2485backed Yes | 1c | 4,496$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 3c | 4,485$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.01 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…6b95backed Yes | 18c | 4,484$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed Yes | 14c | 4,451$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…26b5backed Yes | 25c | 4,296$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 8c | 4,180$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.53 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365d…cce6backed Yes | 5c | 4,127$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e8…1941backed Yes | 19c | 4,067$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc630…fbe4backed Yes | 15c | 4,015$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.33 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Yes | 1c | 3,890$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 9c | 3,840$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.82 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…0007backed Yes | 8c | 3,614$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…f3cbbacked Yes | 17c | 3,500$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 3,482$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.25 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe971…e480backed Yes | 14c | 3,457$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf9…2fd9backed Yes | 2c | 3,439$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…f1a9backed Yes | 30c | 3,429$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ea…f294backed Yes | 4c | 3,390$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c40…27e0backed Yes | 3c | 3,345$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8e…022ebacked Yes | 9c | 3,333$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 76c | 3,333$2,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.92 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 3,304$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.15 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…48b6backed Yes | 9c | 3,295$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc227…b90cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,292$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa000…8eddbacked Yes | 10c | 3,287$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…6f3abacked Yes | 8c | 3,283$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f6…4049backed Yes | 13c | 3,277$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1178…d3fabacked Yes | 13c | 3,242$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…c310backed Yes | 4c | 3,207$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?this page
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.