Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x062e5937100103295e98f56a99926df33f05e3b9f1a1929780aef1f4c46d73e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,591,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,339,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,591,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 319 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e39…0055backed Yes | 2c | 100,458$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 85,399$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.98 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b30…54f9backed Yes | 1c | 75,503$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e4…ab58backed Yes | 0c | 58,735$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…c3bbbacked Yes | 1c | 53,290$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes | 3c | 45,872$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580.38 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe176…9d7cbacked Yes | 1c | 43,625$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.29 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…43c6backed Yes | 3c | 43,085$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcb…63efbacked Yes | 1c | 42,240$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…b007backed Yes | 3c | 39,827$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 38,719$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.61 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 0c | 32,029$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 3c | 31,515$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.2 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 1c | 30,080$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.45 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…35cfbacked Yes | 3c | 29,663$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9586…8320backed Yes | 1c | 22,972$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.81 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…d891backed Yes | 1c | 22,377$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 22,127$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.57 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bb…2b78backed Yes | 3c | 22,101$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…08febacked Yes | 3c | 22,019$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c91…4fefbacked Yes | 0c | 21,684$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x537b…1e88backed Yes | 1c | 21,086$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e2…9a41backed Yes | 2c | 20,875$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 1c | 20,684$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.39 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x395e…5697backed Yes | 1c | 18,722$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 2c | 18,577$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.18 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…6fc4backed Yes | 1c | 16,215$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.41 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97c…f62bbacked Yes | 2c | 16,039$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…0e3fbacked Yes | 0c | 14,750$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5180…1189backed Yes | 1c | 14,696$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…f070backed Yes | 3c | 13,901$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc21…5af6backed Yes | 1c | 13,523$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 1c | 13,316$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.75 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedd0…5bcbbacked Yes | 1c | 12,530$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…1b27backed Yes | 1c | 12,507$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1d…148bbacked Yes | 4c | 12,171$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 1c | 11,671$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.1 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa115…11d8backed Yes | 1c | 11,198$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 1c | 11,079$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…87a6backed Yes | 2c | 10,860$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea50…f670backed Yes | 1c | 10,634$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…9021backed Yes | 1c | 10,357$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…e782backed Yes | 3c | 10,244$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…c6f9backed Yes | 2c | 10,210$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…fa3abacked Yes | 2c | 10,057$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…c504backed Yes | 4c | 9,573$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.04 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…52c0backed Yes | 1c | 9,404$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…cd0ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,202$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 9,092$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.13 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246b…caf9backed Yes | 2c | 9,026$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 7,887$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.7 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…7922backed Yes | 0c | 7,750$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1156…cac6backed Yes | 1c | 7,086$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…2995backed Yes | 1c | 7,010$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -56%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973d…f6b7backed Yes | 2c | 6,915$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 6,847$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.51 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1837…8da6backed Yes | 1c | 6,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…f251backed Yes | 1c | 6,560$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 3c | 6,379$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.94 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8a…6b3dbacked Yes | 4c | 6,367$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf0…00b9backed Yes | 0c | 6,354$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2658…dfc7backed Yes | 3c | 6,300$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.55 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6984…4c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,114$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e8…1941backed Yes | 0c | 6,031$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…ecd3backed Yes | 1c | 6,004$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b39…18bcbacked Yes | 3c | 6,003$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,974$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d9…26a2backed Yes | 3c | 5,943$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,920$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 2c | 5,853$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…b912backed Yes | 1c | 5,842$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…6709backed Yes | 1c | 5,825$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,803$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bf…1c60backed Yes | 3c | 5,665$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…0ca5backed Yes | 2c | 5,534$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…ee59backed Yes | 1c | 5,390$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e31…901ebacked Yes | 3c | 5,254$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.65 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 3c | 5,253$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.54 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 3c | 5,222$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.5 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0529…cd38backed Yes | 1c | 5,201$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc53b…7049backed Yes | 3c | 5,169$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.69 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x268e…02a1backed Yes | 3c | 5,127$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ca…990fbacked Yes | 5c | 5,087$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…b478backed Yes | 2c | 5,004$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…8c54backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff27…53cbbacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.51 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…6f3abacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3e…75edbacked Yes | 1c | 4,904$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a0…46b2backed Yes | 2c | 4,813$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,659$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb165…290bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,555$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc047…b0d4backed Yes | 2c | 4,513$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a72…a524backed Yes | 2c | 4,444$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e1…5ae3backed Yes | 4c | 4,409$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.01 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 4,396$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7619…6ee7backed Yes | 2c | 4,350$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd996…4804backed Yes | 2c | 4,219$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce6…60e3backed Yes | 5c | 4,206$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…dfd8backed Yes | 2c | 4,159$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…c27ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,059$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?this page
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?No won
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.